Tonight we will continue looking at Huntersville, NC, a little higher up on the price ladder...under 600k, under 800k and under 1 million.
In the under 600k range, we now see many features become common place. Mostly full brick veneer, granite counter tops, Stainless Steel appliances, and tile bathrooms. Neighborhood features step up a level as well, including golf, clubhouse, pool and tennis courts. Several of these homes were on the Golf course. Of, course. lot sizes are larges, ranging from .32to .94 acres.
Here is a case where $/sf is not always the best measure of value. The range here was 131 - 170 $/sf. Your 'value' in these homes would be in direct proportion to your interest in Golf, no necessarily in the amount of total space in the home. The same goes for the one house that had a private pool in the yard. Either you want it or it has no 'value', and may even be a negative, in your estimation of value.
Having said all that, the choice in this range was a 3866 sf home in Skybrook. A golf course community that has all the amenities mentioned above. At $151/sf it is solidly in the middle of the range at $584,900. Built in 2004, many of the new home hassles, like establishing a yard and initial window treatments are already in place. Of course new owners may have different tastes for some items, but changes can be made over time, not immediately. The house has a Master Suite down, a feature more and more in demand.
My choice in the under 800k range was easy. There was only one available, and newly on the market, as well. Also in Skybrook, priced at $799,900, the distinctive feature is a fully finished basement. Larger than the others at 5861 sf, it has 6 bedrooms and 6 baths, sitting on .57 acres!
In the under 1 million category, we see some true custom homes and estates, with land up to 15 acres or Lake view or even Waterfront. My choice is the Waterfront home. This is new construction, 3561 sf at $899,900. There is a private deck off the master bedroom with a lake view. This home even has a Private pier on Lake Norman (this is becoming a rare item, as every lot is not automatically allowed to have a pier). All these features make this one a real 'Deal', if it's in your range.
As I've said before, due to advertising restrictions, I cannot show pictures of these homes here, but you can email me and I will be glad to send you a full property report.
See you next week.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Blogging from Pensacola, Florida
I just spent the last few days in Pensacola with my son finding him a place to live and getting him started in Flight School- Naval Aviation.
The real estate here is flooded with home for rent and homes for sale. New construction is limited to a few pricey waterfront developments. My son had his pick of 1700-2000 sf hmes for under 1000 per month. All were in good conditon, in good neighborhoods. Tough place to be in RE.
Here are some photos, the white sand might be brighter white thanit appears:
It was still in the low 90's with water temperatures in the 80's.
The real estate here is flooded with home for rent and homes for sale. New construction is limited to a few pricey waterfront developments. My son had his pick of 1700-2000 sf hmes for under 1000 per month. All were in good conditon, in good neighborhoods. Tough place to be in RE.
Here are some photos, the white sand might be brighter white thanit appears:
It was still in the low 90's with water temperatures in the 80's.
Monday, September 24, 2007
Festival in the Park, Freedom Park, 2007
Here are my slides from the weekend, the Festival was great. Enjoy.
Mark you r calender for next year.
Mark you r calender for next year.
Carolina MLS DOM: Delibarately BAD
Breaking Down The Carolina MLS Numbers, first of at least two post.
Well after quite a number of tries, I was able to duplicate the results for the MLS August press release with one exception, Days on Market... that's not surprising since Days on Market, DOM, is a meaningless statistic the way Carolina Home computes it.
This is first in a series on our local MLS and will be included in the transparent real estate section of the blog- in this post I examine how the Carolina MLS and the DOM numbers are deliberately inaccurate and how they work against buyers and their agents.
Good agents and brokers use the MLS daily and it is generally a very reliable source of data- a truth teller for the property, and a truth teller for the market. It needs to be because customers depend on it... we send them "Customer Full Reports" in their email every day. They can and frequently do compare properties side by side for features and square foot for square foot. Accuracy is so important, an Agent or Broker can be sued for knowingly putting in false information, and censured by the real estate commission for accidentally putting in false information.
So why isn't MLS's Days on Market accurate? And why did I say deliberately above? You be the judge.
For the Carolina MLS, and many, but not all MLS across the country, the Days on Market given by the MLS don't start necessarily when the house first went on the market. DOM is often an indicator of seller motivation and the general health of the market. A seller with a DOM of 200 is more likely to take a lower offer than one with a DOM of 5, wouldn't you think? That might be important information to have when considering how much to offer, wouldn't it? But what if the reverse were true? That DOM 5 was actually over a year old, could you miss making an offer here? Yes you could and the truth is client or agent don't know from our MLS reports. Interestingly, the inaccurate DOM does not appear on the "Customer Full Report" only on the "Agent Full Report"
As an aside, I spoke to our MLS today, asking how they arrived at their DOM reported in their last Press Release? I was told by their Data base manager that the "Numbers were flaky from the start." Back to the customers...
Customers frequently ask, "How many days has it been on the market?" We refer to the Agent Full Report and tell them. And it may not be correct at all. How is that so? Well in the example above, in the Carolina MLS, the DOM 5 could have been on the market much longer than the DOM 200. Say that again? Thats right, the DOM 5 could have been on the market longer, because the way CMLS measures it, it is from the last Listing Date, not the original listing date. In the example above, the DOM 5 listing could have been on the market for one year, 365 days, then fired their first agent. A day later they re-listed with a new agent. Presto, new listing date (latest listing date) and a brand new DOM, 4 days later we (buyer and buyer agent) are reviewing and it says DOM 5. Can we research this and find the true answer? Yes, but again, why is this Wrong answer on the MLS Sheet WE strive so hard to make accurate?
Two additional questions: Why isn't DOM on the "Customer Full Report"? and Why do they measure it from the last listing date, instead of the first, like so many other MLS's do? In the example above, the Listing Date and DOM should have been taken from the first listing date, not the last, for accurate DOM.
Why? It is figured from the last List date on the MLS to yield the smallest (DOM) number to protect Sellers. It not being on the Customer Full Report protects the MLS from liability, and in the process they leave us Buyer Agents liable. What? We're liable as Agents when the MLS printed the info? Yes because we tell the customer the DOM from the Agent Full Report. That means the liability is with us, if we don't also explain every time we say "DOM is 20, but that number doesn't mean much I'll research it." They then ask why it doesn't mean much...
Then after explaining why this number is not to be trusted, the customer then asks, which other numbers can not be trusted? It happened to me this past month, just this way working with an astute California couple moving to Charlotte. He pointed out to me the differences and asked the same questions I am trying to answer here.
I think it is clear-- Days on market should be from the first listing date- as I understand in California if its re-listed within 30 days it is the same listing. And I think it should be on the Customer Full Report-- no reason to hide it and set up an inexperienced agent to mislead his client by not doing his homework.
What other numbers on your MLS are hidden from the customer? What other numbers do the MLS use to favor sellers? Ah the subject of my next post. There is a movement nationwide towards transparent real estate, I'm getting on board because transparent real estate is better real estate.
And its been this way forever? Do you think they don't know the DOM numbers are bad?
I knew you were a smart crowd! :)
Well after quite a number of tries, I was able to duplicate the results for the MLS August press release with one exception, Days on Market... that's not surprising since Days on Market, DOM, is a meaningless statistic the way Carolina Home computes it.
This is first in a series on our local MLS and will be included in the transparent real estate section of the blog- in this post I examine how the Carolina MLS and the DOM numbers are deliberately inaccurate and how they work against buyers and their agents.
Good agents and brokers use the MLS daily and it is generally a very reliable source of data- a truth teller for the property, and a truth teller for the market. It needs to be because customers depend on it... we send them "Customer Full Reports" in their email every day. They can and frequently do compare properties side by side for features and square foot for square foot. Accuracy is so important, an Agent or Broker can be sued for knowingly putting in false information, and censured by the real estate commission for accidentally putting in false information.
So why isn't MLS's Days on Market accurate? And why did I say deliberately above? You be the judge.
For the Carolina MLS, and many, but not all MLS across the country, the Days on Market given by the MLS don't start necessarily when the house first went on the market. DOM is often an indicator of seller motivation and the general health of the market. A seller with a DOM of 200 is more likely to take a lower offer than one with a DOM of 5, wouldn't you think? That might be important information to have when considering how much to offer, wouldn't it? But what if the reverse were true? That DOM 5 was actually over a year old, could you miss making an offer here? Yes you could and the truth is client or agent don't know from our MLS reports. Interestingly, the inaccurate DOM does not appear on the "Customer Full Report" only on the "Agent Full Report"
As an aside, I spoke to our MLS today, asking how they arrived at their DOM reported in their last Press Release? I was told by their Data base manager that the "Numbers were flaky from the start." Back to the customers...
Customers frequently ask, "How many days has it been on the market?" We refer to the Agent Full Report and tell them. And it may not be correct at all. How is that so? Well in the example above, in the Carolina MLS, the DOM 5 could have been on the market much longer than the DOM 200. Say that again? Thats right, the DOM 5 could have been on the market longer, because the way CMLS measures it, it is from the last Listing Date, not the original listing date. In the example above, the DOM 5 listing could have been on the market for one year, 365 days, then fired their first agent. A day later they re-listed with a new agent. Presto, new listing date (latest listing date) and a brand new DOM, 4 days later we (buyer and buyer agent) are reviewing and it says DOM 5. Can we research this and find the true answer? Yes, but again, why is this Wrong answer on the MLS Sheet WE strive so hard to make accurate?
Two additional questions: Why isn't DOM on the "Customer Full Report"? and Why do they measure it from the last listing date, instead of the first, like so many other MLS's do? In the example above, the Listing Date and DOM should have been taken from the first listing date, not the last, for accurate DOM.
Why? It is figured from the last List date on the MLS to yield the smallest (DOM) number to protect Sellers. It not being on the Customer Full Report protects the MLS from liability, and in the process they leave us Buyer Agents liable. What? We're liable as Agents when the MLS printed the info? Yes because we tell the customer the DOM from the Agent Full Report. That means the liability is with us, if we don't also explain every time we say "DOM is 20, but that number doesn't mean much I'll research it." They then ask why it doesn't mean much...
Then after explaining why this number is not to be trusted, the customer then asks, which other numbers can not be trusted? It happened to me this past month, just this way working with an astute California couple moving to Charlotte. He pointed out to me the differences and asked the same questions I am trying to answer here.
I think it is clear-- Days on market should be from the first listing date- as I understand in California if its re-listed within 30 days it is the same listing. And I think it should be on the Customer Full Report-- no reason to hide it and set up an inexperienced agent to mislead his client by not doing his homework.
What other numbers on your MLS are hidden from the customer? What other numbers do the MLS use to favor sellers? Ah the subject of my next post. There is a movement nationwide towards transparent real estate, I'm getting on board because transparent real estate is better real estate.
And its been this way forever? Do you think they don't know the DOM numbers are bad?
I knew you were a smart crowd! :)
Sunday, September 23, 2007
Sunday Night Steals And Deals- Huntersville
Tonight I'm looking at Huntersville, NC, a popular northern suburb, about 25 minutes to Uptown, and ranked as one of the top 100 places to live in 2004 and 2005 by Money Magazine.
I'm also going to detail the criteria I use in determining value from my excellent tools at hand, the MLS. Since I don't have a personal stake in it, i.e I don't have to live there, my only objective is to help you find a place that makes you happy, understanding your choices and trade-offs, without committing any large real estate errors. Regardless of what I think, the call is ultimately always the Buyers.
I looked at two entry level prices, those for under 250K and those under 400K. I also am only
looking at new or newer homes, built since 2000.
In the under 250K there were thirteen entries after I added the 2500 square foot minimum criteria. They're Asking Prices fell in a narrow range, from 88.95/sf to 96.61/sf. Then I began looking at features, but not the features you might think-- I began looking at what I call "Value Anchors"-- these are features that are always desirable by a large proportion of buyers, almost always are unchangeable, and they give the property its intrinsic value. They are what causes differentiated appreciation (one neighborhood appreciating faster than a neighboring one) . Prime in-town locations are obvious value anchors, as is waterfront property or golf course property. Less obvious are other traits, such as sizable yards, cul-de-sac locations, community features such as pool and playground, and other neighborhood amenities.
Note, I didn't mention house features- those are more subjective and, for me, come after the house has met the aforementioned criteria. Also, it is something I rarely choose for anyone but my family-- and even then it is not wise to do alone! :)
So from my 3 semi-finalists the prices ranged from 241,900 to 248,00. Since only 2 had terrific community features- pool, playgrounds and more- I eliminated the least expensive, leaving two excellent candidates, at 248 and 244.9, both with great value anchors in the community features. They were .25 and .23 acres respectively, the .23 (244.9) was fenced, the .25 was newer, 2006, vs 2001 for the 244.9. However the 244.9 was priced at 96/sf and the larger, 248 was priced at $90/sf, and larger by 200 sf at 2735 sf. I think many of you are probably seeing the benefit of a chart here? I'd recommend it.
There is clearly a case for either of these, but I know something you don't know. The 244.9 is in Cedarfield, is priced 96/sf and is right in the middle of the price per square foot range for this community. Also it has a fenced yard, always good on the re-sale side plus a terrificly landscaped yard, versus the new builder special, 9 bushes and (1) 5' tree, whose sf price is near the top of its community. And the other sales in the 248AK neighborhood? There is only one larger than 248, so it is a top of the market Asking Price- something I can not recommend. Last but not least I know something you can't know at a distance, but is suggested by the above data- most people, myself included, would prefer Cedarfield to Tanners Creek-- so, we go with the slightly smaller home, at 2535 sf, with an asking price of $244,900. A study of the comparable sales shows this home to be priced aggressively, not a "hope for price" and so I'd recommend a first offer around 224, expecting to have to pay 236-239 to get it. There is a 10% chance it will go for full price as comparable sales suggest an at or near full price sale.
I went througha similar process in the under 400K category having to adjust the criteria to 2800 sf minimum to get a manageable number of listings. From my Home Comparison Report, I found they ranged from $88 to129/per sf of Asking Prices, the median being $109/ sf. I had 4 semi-finalists across the price points (price per sf) but quickly cut it to two when I noticed one didn't have a community pool and one was the former model home and was priced higher than any sale in the neighborhood. SoI've labelled them A and B, so you might see it easier.
A) is in Birkdale, built in 2001, AskingPrice is $385,500 and it has 3117 SF, so it is Asking at 123.5/sf. Birkdale is a golf course community with great amenities just off I-77 Exit 25 in Huntersville. The house is a 4br/3.5ba home on .344 acres, on a cul de sac, with a covered front porch.
B) is in MacAulay, built in 2006, Asking Price is $380,000 on 3774 SF or 101 per sf. It too has great amenities, but no golf course and is located just of Exit 25. It hjs 5 br/3.5 ba and sits on .182 acres, and has barely been lived in.
Both seem to have all the upgrades- granite/tile backsplashes and hardwood floors. Birkdale sells in a tighter range than MacAulay. MacAulay is the clear space winner, and has the extra bedroom.
So this is a draw, impossible to say with the information at hand, which is the clear winner. if you don't need 3700 sf, I'd suggest the Birkdale option... it's higher sf pricing suggest a "better" community- and I thinkmot people would prefer the house spacing, street placement and appeal of Birkdale over MacAulay, not to mention it is a golf course community. On the other hand, if needed a 5th bedroom and the 3700 sf, MacAulay is a bargain at 100 per sf, a fraction above Cedarfield above.
There you have it-- the basic criteria I use to evaluate properties before visiting them, to determine relative value, desirability and which could geon the the list for Sunday night Steals and Deals.
I'll be travelling this week, I'll try and post from Pensacola, Florida.
I'm also going to detail the criteria I use in determining value from my excellent tools at hand, the MLS. Since I don't have a personal stake in it, i.e I don't have to live there, my only objective is to help you find a place that makes you happy, understanding your choices and trade-offs, without committing any large real estate errors. Regardless of what I think, the call is ultimately always the Buyers.
I looked at two entry level prices, those for under 250K and those under 400K. I also am only
looking at new or newer homes, built since 2000.
In the under 250K there were thirteen entries after I added the 2500 square foot minimum criteria. They're Asking Prices fell in a narrow range, from 88.95/sf to 96.61/sf. Then I began looking at features, but not the features you might think-- I began looking at what I call "Value Anchors"-- these are features that are always desirable by a large proportion of buyers, almost always are unchangeable, and they give the property its intrinsic value. They are what causes differentiated appreciation (one neighborhood appreciating faster than a neighboring one) . Prime in-town locations are obvious value anchors, as is waterfront property or golf course property. Less obvious are other traits, such as sizable yards, cul-de-sac locations, community features such as pool and playground, and other neighborhood amenities.
Note, I didn't mention house features- those are more subjective and, for me, come after the house has met the aforementioned criteria. Also, it is something I rarely choose for anyone but my family-- and even then it is not wise to do alone! :)
So from my 3 semi-finalists the prices ranged from 241,900 to 248,00. Since only 2 had terrific community features- pool, playgrounds and more- I eliminated the least expensive, leaving two excellent candidates, at 248 and 244.9, both with great value anchors in the community features. They were .25 and .23 acres respectively, the .23 (244.9) was fenced, the .25 was newer, 2006, vs 2001 for the 244.9. However the 244.9 was priced at 96/sf and the larger, 248 was priced at $90/sf, and larger by 200 sf at 2735 sf. I think many of you are probably seeing the benefit of a chart here? I'd recommend it.
There is clearly a case for either of these, but I know something you don't know. The 244.9 is in Cedarfield, is priced 96/sf and is right in the middle of the price per square foot range for this community. Also it has a fenced yard, always good on the re-sale side plus a terrificly landscaped yard, versus the new builder special, 9 bushes and (1) 5' tree, whose sf price is near the top of its community. And the other sales in the 248AK neighborhood? There is only one larger than 248, so it is a top of the market Asking Price- something I can not recommend. Last but not least I know something you can't know at a distance, but is suggested by the above data- most people, myself included, would prefer Cedarfield to Tanners Creek-- so, we go with the slightly smaller home, at 2535 sf, with an asking price of $244,900. A study of the comparable sales shows this home to be priced aggressively, not a "hope for price" and so I'd recommend a first offer around 224, expecting to have to pay 236-239 to get it. There is a 10% chance it will go for full price as comparable sales suggest an at or near full price sale.
I went througha similar process in the under 400K category having to adjust the criteria to 2800 sf minimum to get a manageable number of listings. From my Home Comparison Report, I found they ranged from $88 to129/per sf of Asking Prices, the median being $109/ sf. I had 4 semi-finalists across the price points (price per sf) but quickly cut it to two when I noticed one didn't have a community pool and one was the former model home and was priced higher than any sale in the neighborhood. SoI've labelled them A and B, so you might see it easier.
A) is in Birkdale, built in 2001, AskingPrice is $385,500 and it has 3117 SF, so it is Asking at 123.5/sf. Birkdale is a golf course community with great amenities just off I-77 Exit 25 in Huntersville. The house is a 4br/3.5ba home on .344 acres, on a cul de sac, with a covered front porch.
B) is in MacAulay, built in 2006, Asking Price is $380,000 on 3774 SF or 101 per sf. It too has great amenities, but no golf course and is located just of Exit 25. It hjs 5 br/3.5 ba and sits on .182 acres, and has barely been lived in.
Both seem to have all the upgrades- granite/tile backsplashes and hardwood floors. Birkdale sells in a tighter range than MacAulay. MacAulay is the clear space winner, and has the extra bedroom.
So this is a draw, impossible to say with the information at hand, which is the clear winner. if you don't need 3700 sf, I'd suggest the Birkdale option... it's higher sf pricing suggest a "better" community- and I thinkmot people would prefer the house spacing, street placement and appeal of Birkdale over MacAulay, not to mention it is a golf course community. On the other hand, if needed a 5th bedroom and the 3700 sf, MacAulay is a bargain at 100 per sf, a fraction above Cedarfield above.
There you have it-- the basic criteria I use to evaluate properties before visiting them, to determine relative value, desirability and which could geon the the list for Sunday night Steals and Deals.
I'll be travelling this week, I'll try and post from Pensacola, Florida.
Saturday, September 22, 2007
Against the Transit Tax Repeal
Oh let me count the ways! Let's start with these facts I think most of us could agree on: Charlotte is growing at an extremely high rate, congestion is high here by any measure, and that growth will continue for the foreseeable future. Therefore,
The tax, .5 cents added to our sales tax, is good policy because:
1. Roughly 2/3's of the annual $68Million in revenue has supported expanding the Charlotte bus service, rapidly addressing short term needs, and 1/3 supports light rail, long term needs.
2. The sales tax is a regional tax, in other words commuters from Iredell, Union County, Cabarrus, York, Gaston-- everyone coming in to Charlotte and purchasing goods here helps pay the tax, in other words, those who benefit from our economy need to be involved in improving Charlotte infrastructure. If the tax is repealed? Ask the pro-repeal guys, it will fall on the shoulders of Charlotte and Mecklenburg County to pay for it through property taxes. This is an easy economic question for city of Charlotte voters.
3. It allows the city to guide its development and reconstruction. It is inescapable that the "transportation policy" is a "land use policy" in disguise, as a detractor points out. Yup sure is- just like a highway plan! Real estate agents in North Carolina have long known that if you want to invest in land, the first stop you should make is Raleigh to see where the roads will be in 15-20 years! Likewise, when choosing transit corridors, there are by definition "winners" (those owning property on or near the corridors) and Losers ( those owning property along competitive avenues) which accounts for some of the cut with a knife screams of "conspiracy" by Transit detractors.
4. It is something we can do. It will not solve the area's congestion by itself, not by a long shot,
but as most know, federal funds for mass transit have dried up and highway policy is set in Raleigh.
5. Suppiorting the tax doesn't keep us from fighting for more roads for the Charlotte region. WE NEED TO! I am a supporter of Republican's Phil Berger and Paul Stam's advocacy that the transportation fund stop being looted, raided, or plundered -your choice of words for a state taking transportation tax revenues to pay for other measures, of a $1.5B road bond for NC being placed on the November ballot, and addressing the archaic way the trust fund allocates highway spending without regard to growth, congestion or highway miles traveled. Berger and Stam also call on Governor Easley and the Democratically controlled state house to take transportation and infrastructure seriously which means NOT cutting the funding by 41M as the current budget does. If education was a winner in the state budget, transportation was a loser.
The critics have been against transit from the start, the cost over runs just gave them the cover to get this on the ballot. Just a note, the price of transit projects is very hard to predict accurately, and if you lived in Seattle you'd think our cost over run small. Many of the tranist critic are the same critics who told you we could get more schools by voting against the last school bond, how did that work out for you? Many of the arguments are the same too. "It cost too much", or "I'm not getting enough for my community" or "We're over-taxed", or "My voters won't ride it." All of these arguments can be translated simply into this reality, "I am not getting what I want."
The sales tax spreads the cost of transit improvements over the greater Charlotte community, and is decidedly more fair than raising my Charlotte property taxes. Most believe a family of four pays roughly $59 more for the sales tax-- and to get similar revenues from our Charlotte property taxes? $160 per year per property owner to fund the $68M the tax produces.
We, the citizens of Charlotte who believe in Charlotte's future, need to take the lead. We need to take the lead on transit, highways, public safety and all the policy's needed to keep this city the great and the wonderful place it is-- for families, for business, and for the state. We need to support forward looking politicians- and communicate that support through our votes and presence to those who believe in the future of Charlotte and this state, and NOT those that believe the city's best days are behind them. I include Mayor McGrory in this forward-thinking group, he has led the way on transit and taken political heat for it. We need to push our State representatives to do what is necessary to provide roads for the 21st Century for North Carolina and Charlotte.
And the .5 cent tax benefits every Charlotte resident because for every person taken off the highway... that makes my drive (and those who have to or prefer to drive) around town a little better.
Vote for Charlotte's Future, Vote NO on the repeal, and lets beat it 3 to 1.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Real Estate Headlines
These headlines just came across the wire (love that expression, culled from my vast email list)
1/3 of purchaser loans originated by Mortgage Brokers failed to close in August, 2007. WOW!
1/2 Fed drop is like putting the lending industry on steroids, jet fuel in place of regular fuel... hopefully that will translate positively as it percolates into the nation-wide housing market. The Fed seem's serious about heading off a possible housing recession-- that's good news.
The priciest zip codes in the country, from Forbes magazine . Always fun, surprises? Yes, number 1 is a new Jersey zip, famous Beverly Hills-90210 was 40th and only 3 Carolina zips made the top 100, all on the coast, 2 in NC one in SC. Check it out
1/3 of purchaser loans originated by Mortgage Brokers failed to close in August, 2007. WOW!
1/2 Fed drop is like putting the lending industry on steroids, jet fuel in place of regular fuel... hopefully that will translate positively as it percolates into the nation-wide housing market. The Fed seem's serious about heading off a possible housing recession-- that's good news.
The priciest zip codes in the country, from Forbes magazine . Always fun, surprises? Yes, number 1 is a new Jersey zip, famous Beverly Hills-90210 was 40th and only 3 Carolina zips made the top 100, all on the coast, 2 in NC one in SC. Check it out
Mortgage Market Report
Olan will report regularly on the state of the mortgage market, rates, conditions and changes to the market. As we've all noticed, the mortgage market can change and change fast. He works for Myers Park Mortgage, the area's largest mortgage lender.
NO DOC LOAN CHANGES
I currently work for the largest mortgage broker in the Charlotte area, as ranked by the Charlotte Business Journal. We are known for aggressive programs and rates. One area I have personally specialized in is No Doc loans, especially for people new to the area.
When you first move to a new state and don't have employment in place, you can not qualify for a new home with a traditional mortgage. I have often been able to help borrowers with high credit scores and large down payments to close on their new home before they obtain employment in the Charlotte area, and typically with very good interest rates.
These programs have changed greatly! Most lenders have stopped offering them or have raised the interests by several percentage points. I just had a client ask me if she could get a No Doc loan for an investment property. After checking with our product specialist, I discovered that we no longer have any lenders offering that program. Hopefully with time these products will return, but for now you can plan on paying over 9.00%.
CURRENT RATES - 9/14/2007
This is not a rate quote. I am posting the average market range for each program.
30 Year Fixed - 6.00% to 6.5%
30 Year Fixed (Zero Down) - 6.375% to 6.75%
15 Year Fixed - 5.625% to 6.00%
FHA/VA 30 Year Fixed - 6.25% to 6.50%
Olan Carder
Olan Carder
Why is th APR different from my interest rate?
by Olan Carder
What is an APR and why is different from my interest rate?
Most homebuyers get very confused when they first see their APR. Their loan officer told them that the interest rate is 6.25%, but they see the APR is 6.456%. What is going on?
Before understanding the APR, you need to know its purpose. The APR was invented to help consumers shop and compare mortgage loans. If one lender quotes you 6% with no points but the other lender quotes you 5.75% with one point, which one is better? The APR enables you to easily compare 2 loans because it shows you the interest rate you are paying and the fees you are paying to get that rate spread out over the term of the loan.
In theory, it should be a true apples to apples comparison of two loan quotes. Since the APR shows your interest rate and the fees you are paying for that rate, it should normally be higher than your actual rate. The test is how much higher.
There are 2 problems:
Problem #1 with comparing loans with the APR... each loan officer's computer has to be setup properly to include the correct fees into that number. That leaves it open to human tampering. Far be it from me to hint that some loan officers would willingly print a false APR to win a loan, but even an honest loan officer might make a mistake. That's why you should compare the APR, but also compare the Good Faith Estimate line for line and make sure you are getting the best deal.
Problem #2 with comparing loans with the APR... the comparison only works if you keep the loan for the entire term. If you get a 30 year loan but only keep it 6 years, the comparison might not be correct. The APR shows you which loan costs less over 30 years not 6 years. That's why I offer a "Total Cost Analysis" to my clients that calculates the total cost for period of time they plan to keep the mortgage. That is the best way to compare loan programs.
For more information about this or other loan topics, email me at olan@myersparkmortgage.com.
What is an APR and why is different from my interest rate?
Most homebuyers get very confused when they first see their APR. Their loan officer told them that the interest rate is 6.25%, but they see the APR is 6.456%. What is going on?
Before understanding the APR, you need to know its purpose. The APR was invented to help consumers shop and compare mortgage loans. If one lender quotes you 6% with no points but the other lender quotes you 5.75% with one point, which one is better? The APR enables you to easily compare 2 loans because it shows you the interest rate you are paying and the fees you are paying to get that rate spread out over the term of the loan.
In theory, it should be a true apples to apples comparison of two loan quotes. Since the APR shows your interest rate and the fees you are paying for that rate, it should normally be higher than your actual rate. The test is how much higher.
There are 2 problems:
Problem #1 with comparing loans with the APR... each loan officer's computer has to be setup properly to include the correct fees into that number. That leaves it open to human tampering. Far be it from me to hint that some loan officers would willingly print a false APR to win a loan, but even an honest loan officer might make a mistake. That's why you should compare the APR, but also compare the Good Faith Estimate line for line and make sure you are getting the best deal.
Problem #2 with comparing loans with the APR... the comparison only works if you keep the loan for the entire term. If you get a 30 year loan but only keep it 6 years, the comparison might not be correct. The APR shows you which loan costs less over 30 years not 6 years. That's why I offer a "Total Cost Analysis" to my clients that calculates the total cost for period of time they plan to keep the mortgage. That is the best way to compare loan programs.
For more information about this or other loan topics, email me at olan@myersparkmortgage.com.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Unbelievably Beautiful!
Or, said another way, this is a day "nice enough to move to Charlotte for"...far more typical of October, we've had two beautiful fall days in mid-September. Yesterday and today the temperature hasn't left the 70's, it is dry, sunny and the sky's are somehow bluer than they get up north- yes I know that is technically not possible, just another fantastic North Carolina day. Here's one of my favorite lake pictures, taken from one of the waterfront lots at the Sanctuary on Lake Wylie, on another gorgeous Carolina day. 
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Charlotte Home Prices, The Real Deal On August Prices
Prices are UP, volume is DOWN, reflecting both the underlying strength of Charlotte fundamentals and the affects of the national downturn/recession in housing. This is a look at 13 "bell-weather zip codes" for the greater Charlotte area, from Waxhaw to Mooresville. You might want to get a coffee, this is a long post.
Each zip has the number sold in 2006, and 2007, and the % decrease/increase from 2006.
Each zip has the increase or decrease of average Cost per SF in the % increase/Decrease.
The ATS Ratio is the average Asking To Sold price, for example a 131 ATS means Listing prices 31% higher, on average, than the average solds. Inventory is expressed as the number of months inventory based on the pendings for that month (an admittedly skewed number in August)
All data is derived from the Charlotte MLS based on single family homes only, but is not provided by the MLS.
These zip codes account for 38% of the 7 County region the Carolina MLS reports on single family homes sold in August of 2007.
Some thoughts
There are 13 zip codes in good to very good condition, despite many fewer buyers. I found c couple if zip codes in negative territory and they will be the subject of future posts.
5 of the 6 double digit ATS, Ask to Selling ratios, were the bottom 5 appreciating region- the meaning? If the underlying value isn't perceived to be there, asking price has little influence on final sales price. Question, could the unrealistically high Listing Prices be driving the Sold prices down? I think so...
So there has been a sizable drop in sales volume this year... the commission checks will be smaller -wah! But is that bad for the real estate market? Well it is when it forces prices down, there's no doubt about it... and that is the result (natural result) nationally of the slowdown, falling prices. But not here.
Despite everything that's been thrown at residential real estate, at Charlotte real estate -- a nationwide slowdown that began in the 4th quarter of 2004, increased through out '05 and gaining momentum in'06 with daily "bubble" stories in national news in the media , the sub-prime debacle which has taken conservatively 10% of the buyers out of the market, and the fact our market is dependent on relocators and the slowdown around the country has kept people who want to move to Charlotte from coming, because their homes won't sell...
Despite all that, prices rose on single family homes for the entire Charlotte MLS area 5.1%- based on the average cost per square foot for sold homes versus August 2006. Wow.
It's as if we are defying a natural law like gravity, because everywhere, everywhere
there has been this kind of drop in units sold, prices have fallen. (I put this out here knowing some of you will check around the country-- be sure and tell me if you find ANYwhere else with similar numbers.) The natural result of a 20% reduction in demand is falling prices.
So why are the Charlotte cost per square foots up?
The reason? The reason is Charlotte's underlying value, our fundamentals, are granite-like. A robust local economy driven by the financial sector, low unemployment, good paying jobs, and generally good government. If we were a stock Warren Buffet would love us! We have a mild climate that folks from around the country are discovering. We still are not heavily taxed.
And much of our real estate is still undervalued.
As the real estate industry has grown more transparent-- the market has grown more national and international, people look at Charlotte homes online from around the world and still say, "That's a good deal." And they are right.
Then people come and visit and find it's prettier than they expected, the city is cleaner, the parks nicer, the people nicer... and they know value when they see it.
And that value radiates outwards.
For those of you reading from afar, you might want to know about Days on Market-- a stat that is meaningless here because it only counts the last listing. Thats right the MLS just covers the last listing agreement- for example you list with Agent A for 6 months, and then fire him and call me. I sign you up and put you in the MLS and presto you are a "new" listing, you've now been on the market one day. I sell it the following week, and your Days on market is 8. See why I can't use their numbers? In its place, I use "month's inventory" based on pending sales repeating (a stretch or worse for August) but still it is the best indicator we have. Inventory by zip codes ranged from a low of 1.8 in 28277, averaged just under 3. In general, times on the market have risen, it is hard to say how much. Good homes in good neighborhoods have moved reasonably quickly this year.
What's it all mean? I'll be breaking it down more in coming posts.
Each zip has the number sold in 2006, and 2007, and the % decrease/increase from 2006.
Each zip has the increase or decrease of average Cost per SF in the % increase/Decrease.
The ATS Ratio is the average Asking To Sold price, for example a 131 ATS means Listing prices 31% higher, on average, than the average solds. Inventory is expressed as the number of months inventory based on the pendings for that month (an admittedly skewed number in August)
| AUGUST 2007 | |||||||
| Area o f | 2006 | 2007 | inc/dec | inc/dec | 2007 | 2007 | |
| Zip Code | Charlotte | Units Sold | Units Sold | Units % | CPSF % | ATS | Inv (MO) |
| 28173 | Weddingon-Wax | 142 | 105 | -26 | 0.82 | 115.27 | 3.62 |
| 28227 | Mint Hill | 81 | 79 | -2.47 | 0.85 | 114.37 | 2.05 |
| 28226 | S Charlotte | 65 | 49 | -24.6 | 1.29 | 133.18 | 1.81 |
| 28277 | S Charlotte | 154 | 144 | -6.49 | 1.77 | 105.21 | 2.8 |
| 28037 | Denver | 36 | 41 | 13.89 | 1.91 | 110 | 3 |
| 28078 | Huntersville | 119 | 122 | 2.52 | 1.99 | 106.96 | 3.23 |
| 28269 | North Charlotte | 194 | 137 | -29.4 | 2.34 | 103.3 | 2.14 |
| 28270 | S Charlotte | 73 | 51 | -30% | 4.36 | 107.68 | 2.71 |
| 28105 | Matthews | 82 | 65 | -20.73 | 7.54 | 109.75 | 2.03 |
| 28209 & 11 | SouthPark | 77 | 54 | -30 | 11.26 | 106.7 | 3.57 |
| 28031 | Cornelius | 56 | 56 | 0 | 13.88 | 137.9 | 3.4 |
| 28104 | Matthes-Weddi | 79 | 50 | -36.7 | 14.9 | 97.94 | 2.34 |
| 28036 | Davidson | 31 | 16 | -48.4 | 15.93 | 107.9 | 2.36 |
All data is derived from the Charlotte MLS based on single family homes only, but is not provided by the MLS.
These zip codes account for 38% of the 7 County region the Carolina MLS reports on single family homes sold in August of 2007.
Some thoughts
There are 13 zip codes in good to very good condition, despite many fewer buyers. I found c couple if zip codes in negative territory and they will be the subject of future posts.
5 of the 6 double digit ATS, Ask to Selling ratios, were the bottom 5 appreciating region- the meaning? If the underlying value isn't perceived to be there, asking price has little influence on final sales price. Question, could the unrealistically high Listing Prices be driving the Sold prices down? I think so...
So there has been a sizable drop in sales volume this year... the commission checks will be smaller -wah! But is that bad for the real estate market? Well it is when it forces prices down, there's no doubt about it... and that is the result (natural result) nationally of the slowdown, falling prices. But not here.
Despite everything that's been thrown at residential real estate, at Charlotte real estate -- a nationwide slowdown that began in the 4th quarter of 2004, increased through out '05 and gaining momentum in'06 with daily "bubble" stories in national news in the media , the sub-prime debacle which has taken conservatively 10% of the buyers out of the market, and the fact our market is dependent on relocators and the slowdown around the country has kept people who want to move to Charlotte from coming, because their homes won't sell...
Despite all that, prices rose on single family homes for the entire Charlotte MLS area 5.1%- based on the average cost per square foot for sold homes versus August 2006. Wow.
It's as if we are defying a natural law like gravity, because everywhere, everywhere
there has been this kind of drop in units sold, prices have fallen. (I put this out here knowing some of you will check around the country-- be sure and tell me if you find ANYwhere else with similar numbers.) The natural result of a 20% reduction in demand is falling prices.
So why are the Charlotte cost per square foots up?
The reason? The reason is Charlotte's underlying value, our fundamentals, are granite-like. A robust local economy driven by the financial sector, low unemployment, good paying jobs, and generally good government. If we were a stock Warren Buffet would love us! We have a mild climate that folks from around the country are discovering. We still are not heavily taxed.
And much of our real estate is still undervalued.
As the real estate industry has grown more transparent-- the market has grown more national and international, people look at Charlotte homes online from around the world and still say, "That's a good deal." And they are right.
Then people come and visit and find it's prettier than they expected, the city is cleaner, the parks nicer, the people nicer... and they know value when they see it.
And that value radiates outwards.
For those of you reading from afar, you might want to know about Days on Market-- a stat that is meaningless here because it only counts the last listing. Thats right the MLS just covers the last listing agreement- for example you list with Agent A for 6 months, and then fire him and call me. I sign you up and put you in the MLS and presto you are a "new" listing, you've now been on the market one day. I sell it the following week, and your Days on market is 8. See why I can't use their numbers? In its place, I use "month's inventory" based on pending sales repeating (a stretch or worse for August) but still it is the best indicator we have. Inventory by zip codes ranged from a low of 1.8 in 28277, averaged just under 3. In general, times on the market have risen, it is hard to say how much. Good homes in good neighborhoods have moved reasonably quickly this year.
What's it all mean? I'll be breaking it down more in coming posts.
August Market Report- 28031
Cornelius, NC, Lake Norman's capital city, still growing strong on the lower lake.
Again I think it is fundamentals at work here, same Lake Norman as Mooresville, but 25-30 minutes closer to Charlotte, in Meckenburg vs Iredell County and frankly better infrastructure to go with it (I can hear the howl now) and just better planning-kudos to city of Cornelius.
Their Realtors and sellers are a little wild in their Asking prices with ATS (Asking to Selling) index of 138-- but it doesn't seem to have affected sales or appreciation does it? This demonstrates the transparency of the resale market-- underlying value is what counts! Despite out of line asking prices (37% high!) sales continue with high appreciation rates, but no where near Asking. Why? Because buyers can tell the real value when they go there, and then online they can see what the homes should be selling for- and that is what they are offering. And then sellers come back to the real world too.
A genuine Days on Market stat would be telling here, as would a MLS sheet that showed price drops.
All data is derived from the Carolina MLS, but is not provided by the MLS
| Average | 2006 | 2007 | % Inc/dec |
| Cost per SF | $151.12 | $172.09 | 13.88 |
| # Solds | 56 | 56 | 0.00 |
| Aug-07 | Average Sales Price | $445,380 | |
| ATS | Index | 137.9 | |
| Months Inventory | 3.4 | ||
Again I think it is fundamentals at work here, same Lake Norman as Mooresville, but 25-30 minutes closer to Charlotte, in Meckenburg vs Iredell County and frankly better infrastructure to go with it (I can hear the howl now) and just better planning-kudos to city of Cornelius.
Their Realtors and sellers are a little wild in their Asking prices with ATS (Asking to Selling) index of 138-- but it doesn't seem to have affected sales or appreciation does it? This demonstrates the transparency of the resale market-- underlying value is what counts! Despite out of line asking prices (37% high!) sales continue with high appreciation rates, but no where near Asking. Why? Because buyers can tell the real value when they go there, and then online they can see what the homes should be selling for- and that is what they are offering. And then sellers come back to the real world too.
A genuine Days on Market stat would be telling here, as would a MLS sheet that showed price drops.
All data is derived from the Carolina MLS, but is not provided by the MLS
August Market Report- 28078
Huntersville, NC consistently ranks as a top place to live in the country, and it reports solid fundamentals in August. I think its convenience and relative value, what do you think?
August to August up 2%, sold volume up 2.52, more evidence of a developing national market for real estate as actual sales volume- units- doesn't correspond to sold prices. Rather, I think our area appreciation is based more on competition from other cities-- and because of Hutnersville's popularity in recent years, it has reached a "national" value perhaps for this kind of suburban residential real estate? What do you think? A healthy ATS (Asking To Selling ratio) of 107% and inventory at 3.23 months indicates its continuing popularity. Here is a great photo link to introduce you to Huntersville.
| Average | 2006 | 2007 | % Inc/dec |
| Cost per SF | $112.13 | $114.36 | 1.99 |
| # Solds | 119 | 122 | 2.52 |
| Aug-07 | Average Sales Price | $296,653 | |
| ATS Index | 106.96 | ||
| Months Inventory | 3.23 | ||
August to August up 2%, sold volume up 2.52, more evidence of a developing national market for real estate as actual sales volume- units- doesn't correspond to sold prices. Rather, I think our area appreciation is based more on competition from other cities-- and because of Hutnersville's popularity in recent years, it has reached a "national" value perhaps for this kind of suburban residential real estate? What do you think? A healthy ATS (Asking To Selling ratio) of 107% and inventory at 3.23 months indicates its continuing popularity. Here is a great photo link to introduce you to Huntersville.
August Market Report- 28105
Matthews NC continues its strong presence in the Charlotte market. Convenience ++ Check out the average Sales Price
Once again fewer buyers-- which around the country (and in almost any other market) decreases prices-- not so here, as the average price went up 7.54%, even while unit volume dropped 20%! Matthews has the small town feel a lot of folks are looking for- and it's affordable. See one of my great slide shows, including Matthews Alive, here
All data is derived from the Carolina MLS, but is not provided by the MLS
| Averge | 2006 | 2007 | % Inc/dec |
| Cost Per SF | 101.92 | 109.6 | 7.54 |
| # Solds | 82 | 65 | -20.73 |
| Aug-07 | Average Sales Price | $250,535 | |
| ATS Index | 109.75 | ||
| Months Inventory | 2 | ||
Once again fewer buyers-- which around the country (and in almost any other market) decreases prices-- not so here, as the average price went up 7.54%, even while unit volume dropped 20%! Matthews has the small town feel a lot of folks are looking for- and it's affordable. See one of my great slide shows, including Matthews Alive, here
All data is derived from the Carolina MLS, but is not provided by the MLS
August Market Report- 28209 and 28211
The SouthPark area is well known for its convenience, shopping, quality homes and value.
It is a well deserved reputation. Despite 30% fewer buyers in the market, instead of price decline, prices are up11.26%. Wow. Clearly this is an area newcomers and old timers alike truly love. And the sellers and agents are doing a good job of keeping it real with an ATS of 106%. Inventory at 3.5 reflects the far fewer buyers in this market in August 2007.
See recent pictures of the SouthPark here.
| Average | 2006 | 2007 | % Inc/dec |
| Cost Per SF | 198.34 | 220.68 | 11.26 |
| # Solds | 77 | 54 | -29.87 |
| Average Sales Price | $564,046 | ||
| ATS Index | 106.68 | ||
| Months Inventory | 3.57 | ||
It is a well deserved reputation. Despite 30% fewer buyers in the market, instead of price decline, prices are up11.26%. Wow. Clearly this is an area newcomers and old timers alike truly love. And the sellers and agents are doing a good job of keeping it real with an ATS of 106%. Inventory at 3.5 reflects the far fewer buyers in this market in August 2007.
See recent pictures of the SouthPark here.
Friday, September 14, 2007
August Market Report- 28277
Zip Code 28277, is a popular South Charlotte zip.
Where CPSF is the Average Cost per SF of sold homes. So the ATS (Asking to Selling) is a manageable 105%, Inventory 2.8 month supply, prices up and even the number of solds, is only down slightly.
All numbers are derived from CMLS data, not provided by CMLS
| Average | 2006 | 2007 | % Inc/dec | |
| CPSF | 133.96 | 136.33 | 1.77 | |
| # Solds | 154 | 144 | -6.49 | |
| ATS Index | 105.21 | |||
| Months Inventory | 2.80 | |||
Where CPSF is the Average Cost per SF of sold homes. So the ATS (Asking to Selling) is a manageable 105%, Inventory 2.8 month supply, prices up and even the number of solds, is only down slightly.
All numbers are derived from CMLS data, not provided by CMLS
August Market Report- 28270
August, 2007 Zip Code 28270, central South Charlotte
Average 2006 2007 % Inc/dec
CPSF 117.74 122.87 4.36
# Solds 73 51 -30.14
Aug-07 Average Sales Price $326,842
ATS Index 107.68
Months Inventory 2.71
Average cost per square foot of the solds rose 4.36% in August over August 2006. Number of units fell 30% over a year ago. The ATS index (Asking To Selling) See here for a full explanation- Average Per Sg FT of the Listed to the Average SF of the Solds,- the average listed is asking 107% of the same months solds.
If current sales paces continues, there is an estimated 2.71 months supply of homes.
What of the 30% fewer sales? There were 30% fewer buyers in this zip this month, but prices went up. The market tells the truth, this is still a very popular zip code, central and with good schools.
All data is derived from the Carolina MLS, but is not provided by the MLS
Average 2006 2007 % Inc/dec
CPSF 117.74 122.87 4.36
# Solds 73 51 -30.14
Aug-07 Average Sales Price $326,842
ATS Index 107.68
Months Inventory 2.71
Average cost per square foot of the solds rose 4.36% in August over August 2006. Number of units fell 30% over a year ago. The ATS index (Asking To Selling) See here for a full explanation- Average Per Sg FT of the Listed to the Average SF of the Solds,- the average listed is asking 107% of the same months solds.
If current sales paces continues, there is an estimated 2.71 months supply of homes.
What of the 30% fewer sales? There were 30% fewer buyers in this zip this month, but prices went up. The market tells the truth, this is still a very popular zip code, central and with good schools.
All data is derived from the Carolina MLS, but is not provided by the MLS
Charlotte Prices By Zip and Getting Rid of Meaningless Stats
The fundamentals within our market- our property valuations- are rock solid. Price appreciation, the main measure of strength, is up 5.1% in single families. Yet there are pockets that haven't done nearly so well, a few have lost ground, and we have 10 - 20% fewer buyers in the market, slowing the growth here for the first time in a decade, you'll see that in the coming zip code posts.
I'm changing format from some of my past market reports, hopefully getting to more meaningful information. We'll still have price appreciation, and units sold, but I'm leaving out Days On Market and %Sold To List numbers, because they just don't make much sense. In fact they are almost meaningless the way our MLS reports them.
I'd like to introduce two new indexes I've created to help get a handle on these two issues. The first is my ATS,(rhymes with Cats, or Fats, but not a_s!) or Asking to Selling, which is a measure of the average Listed cost per square foot, versus the he average Sold cost per square foot for the same period, same neighborhood. For example, in August, zip code 28270 has an ATS of 107.68, and that means Listed homes on the market in August were Listed at average prices per sf 107.68% of the average of solds for the same zip, same time... make sense? Said another way, the listing price is running 7.68% above the actual average sold price, now do you get it? You will see some ATS at around 100, others up to 130. Any guess as to which homes are selling better?
The second index attempts to answer how long the average property will stay on the market. I base this on Pending sales, versus Actives, those on the market. It is expressed in Months Inventory, obviously the smaller the number the better. This index will give you an idea of how many months inventory there is on hand if sales remain at current levels... I know, I know, fall sales will be lower, but still, it may be the best measure we can get out of the available statistics. Some people would add the Pending and Sold to determine Inventory, but to me that counts the Pending sale twice.
So why doesn't the MLS Days on Market count? Simple, when the listing expires without selling, if it is re-listed a day later... Presto- like magic its a new listing and Days on Market is One (1) again. How about our vaunted 97% sales to list average? That's bogus too-- it has no relation to the original list price of the property, it is 97% of the last listed price- that could be thousands, or 10's of thousands off the original price. Insert Days on Market and Sales as a % Sold? Here:
I'll explain more in another post-- why these numbers aren't just meaningless, they're frequently deceptive and dangerous in the wrong hands. The Zip Code reports are on the way, the good,the bad and the ugly- a couple very ugly.
I'm changing format from some of my past market reports, hopefully getting to more meaningful information. We'll still have price appreciation, and units sold, but I'm leaving out Days On Market and %Sold To List numbers, because they just don't make much sense. In fact they are almost meaningless the way our MLS reports them.
I'd like to introduce two new indexes I've created to help get a handle on these two issues. The first is my ATS,(rhymes with Cats, or Fats, but not a_s!) or Asking to Selling, which is a measure of the average Listed cost per square foot, versus the he average Sold cost per square foot for the same period, same neighborhood. For example, in August, zip code 28270 has an ATS of 107.68, and that means Listed homes on the market in August were Listed at average prices per sf 107.68% of the average of solds for the same zip, same time... make sense? Said another way, the listing price is running 7.68% above the actual average sold price, now do you get it? You will see some ATS at around 100, others up to 130. Any guess as to which homes are selling better?
The second index attempts to answer how long the average property will stay on the market. I base this on Pending sales, versus Actives, those on the market. It is expressed in Months Inventory, obviously the smaller the number the better. This index will give you an idea of how many months inventory there is on hand if sales remain at current levels... I know, I know, fall sales will be lower, but still, it may be the best measure we can get out of the available statistics. Some people would add the Pending and Sold to determine Inventory, but to me that counts the Pending sale twice.
So why doesn't the MLS Days on Market count? Simple, when the listing expires without selling, if it is re-listed a day later... Presto- like magic its a new listing and Days on Market is One (1) again. How about our vaunted 97% sales to list average? That's bogus too-- it has no relation to the original list price of the property, it is 97% of the last listed price- that could be thousands, or 10's of thousands off the original price. Insert Days on Market and Sales as a % Sold? Here:
I'll explain more in another post-- why these numbers aren't just meaningless, they're frequently deceptive and dangerous in the wrong hands. The Zip Code reports are on the way, the good,the bad and the ugly- a couple very ugly.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Thinking of Buying New In Charlotte?
Thinking about buying new construction in Charlotte? I've got one suggestion....
Buy Inventory! Buy Inventory. And buy inventory at a discount.
Please. There is a lot on the market and builders are dealing on inventory or spec, not build from scratch.
And check with your Buyer Agent-- there may be an Agent bonus that your Agent would be willing to share with you.
Zip Code and area reports are coming in the next couple days... be prepared for gnashing of teeth.
Transparent real estate is Better real estate.
Buy Inventory! Buy Inventory. And buy inventory at a discount.
Please. There is a lot on the market and builders are dealing on inventory or spec, not build from scratch.
And check with your Buyer Agent-- there may be an Agent bonus that your Agent would be willing to share with you.
Zip Code and area reports are coming in the next couple days... be prepared for gnashing of teeth.
Transparent real estate is Better real estate.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Google's Done It Again...Too Much Fun
I've written about Google's Picasa, one of my picks for best new software for 2006- well Google's wonderful free photo editor just got better. Picasa Web Albums has been online for a while- 1 Gig free photo storage, but Google quietly improved it dramatically in late June. Now you can geotag your photos-- put your photos on a Google map. Have a look:
You will have to click on a photo, then go back one level to see the map view. But what a view,it lays out the whole community. I'm waiting for Google to make this a bit easier.
Like Slide.com, I can insert my Picasa Album slide show anywhere- I replaced my CharlotteCommunties Slide Show with my Picasa intro-- I like the Google better, see it here.
Just as with Slide.com, I can change the look of my front page with a new slide show--but less advertising with the Google. Now when I receive a request about an area, I'll just send the link, or maybe embed the slide show! I'm working on a My Mapps application that will show where and at what price the Inventory is located in our fair city, with links back to the neighborhood slide show. I'll post it here when I'm done. As I said, this is too much fun!
Bye Bye Slide.com, you were great, I'll miss you.
You will have to click on a photo, then go back one level to see the map view. But what a view,it lays out the whole community. I'm waiting for Google to make this a bit easier.
Like Slide.com, I can insert my Picasa Album slide show anywhere- I replaced my CharlotteCommunties Slide Show with my Picasa intro-- I like the Google better, see it here.
Just as with Slide.com, I can change the look of my front page with a new slide show--but less advertising with the Google. Now when I receive a request about an area, I'll just send the link, or maybe embed the slide show! I'm working on a My Mapps application that will show where and at what price the Inventory is located in our fair city, with links back to the neighborhood slide show. I'll post it here when I'm done. As I said, this is too much fun!
Bye Bye Slide.com, you were great, I'll miss you.
Sunday, September 09, 2007
The Panthers are 1-0
After the pre-season we had, this is an accomplishment. Great individual performances, plus a great game plan made this a sweet day indeed. I like it when the offense reaches real scoring numbers- today 27 points. 3 touch down passes, just under 200 yards rushing, a complete victory. Quite a game call by the new offensive coordinator. Congrats! Go Jake!
Sunday Night Steals And Deals- Condos, In-Town Single Family
Tonight I'm looking at Uptown condos and intown living in Dilworth. First the condo's. There is a solid selection, so this week I'm looking at the under 230K, 2 bedroom market. The ideal first home for a young professional, perhaps taking a roomate to offset some of the mortgage. With its convenient in-town location, you won't be paying for parking.
Tonight's winner: this condo is located in the First Ward and has 2 bedrooms and 2 baths, at just over 960 sf. This is a penthouse with spectacular city views, 10' ceilings, granite, hardwood floors and more. All appliances are included and the list price is 227,000... we'd try around 214,000 and see what we get back. You'll have to go considerably out South Blvd for a better value.
In Dilworth I was shopping for single families under 500K. Dilworth was the city's first suburb, built from around 1900-1925. The homes are being rebuilt, for the 2nd and 3rd time. Price ranges run from 350K for something in need of remodelling, o well over $1M for larger fully remodeled homes.
Tonight' winner Has 1976 sf, 3 bedrooms and 2 and one half baths. It is a complete house, with deck , yard and porch on one of the 2 or 3 best streets in Dilworth. Walk to the trolley, walk to downtown Dilworth, this house is convenient, and priced right at $500,000. Still, an offer of 475 makes sense, and see where it takes us. Larger homes have sold on this street for over 1M this year. The photo is a typical bungalow style Dilworth house.
As always, I represent buyers, and in the interest of fairness, none of these recommendations are my listings, and as such MLS rules prohibit use of pictures. E mail me for more information at Terry (at) TerryMcDonaldRE.com. My recommendations are based on square foot and asking price, community amenities and my knowledge of the area-- your opinion would likely vary, and further investigation would be required. See you next week!
Charlotte Real Estate Market Report: August 2007
Good news on Charlotte real estate prices! For the month ending August 31, area wide prices are UP 5.1% compared with August 2006, comparing average cost per square foot prices of Charlotte single family homes from the MLS. Some news at first glance was alarming, the number of units sold are way down -20% from August 2006- but I believe I can show that this isn't the bad news it might appear to be to the casual observer. (No I didn't say Charlotte Observer) The photo is a Dilworth beauty built in 1903.What does it mean? I've three broad conclusions, you may have more, tell me what you think:
First, in the face of a nationwide housing recession/depression, and with20% fewer buyers in our marketplace, our prices are up 5.1%. Our economic fundamentals and the valuation in our real estate market remain rock-solid steady. I've said it before- we didn't experience the "bubble" here on the way up, we won't (as a whole) feel it on the way down. Our prices have and continued to grow the old fashioned way, caused by increased population, jobs and increased economic activity- not speculation.
2nd, with unit sales 20% off in August (and Expired listings up 53%!) it is clear Charlotte is feeling the affects of both the sub-prime and the national real estate market downturn through fewer relocations and fewer sales- but how bad is this really for Charlotte? Not as bad as one might think, this reduction in units sold takes us back only to 2004 sales levels. In other words, it is just taking us back a few years with our overall valuations still rising.
3rd- Assuming we have 20% fewer buyers in the marketplace, then the homes not selling could be called the "marginal houses"- the bottom 20% of the market is what is not selling. The question arises what defines the "marginal house"? The Million dollar question don't you think? The 53% increase in Expired listings over August 2006 offers a clue. I think the majority of the "marginal houses" would fall into one of two categories- those in good condition priced too high to sell, and those whose condition does not compare well with other homes in the same price range. In both cases, unrealistic pricing strategies of the sellers or agent's is to blame--remedied by a good agent who prices the home correctly, and home sellers who keep their homes in good to excellent condition.
These comparisons are made easy by the Internet and the increasing transparency of the real estate transaction through pictures , virtual tours, and comparable sales information-- buyers can compare homes side by side and those priced too high, for any reason, don't make the cut.
This too is good news-- with 20% fewer transactions the market is correcting itself, cutting out the fluff, keeping the remaining house sales priced well (indicating our strong fundamentals) and, if it persists it suggests fewer commissions and a shake out of the real estate agents as well as the bottom 20% may seek employment elsewhere- definitely good news!
Let me know what you think. And what are the characteristics of the 20% buyers we lost? Will they be back? Ah, the subject of a future post...
Friday, September 07, 2007
FREE NODA Gallery Crawls
The first and third Fridays each month-- visit music and art during extended gallery hours, 3200 block of North Davidson, for details visit noda.org
Thursday, September 06, 2007
August
August was a great for me-- I was able to welcome 5 new families to the Charlotte area. Thanks to all who had a hand in the relocations
I'll be working on the Charlotte August Real Estate numbers this weekend to see how the rest of the community did... it will be interesting to see how the national slowdown is affecting Charlotte.
I'll be working on the Charlotte August Real Estate numbers this weekend to see how the rest of the community did... it will be interesting to see how the national slowdown is affecting Charlotte.
Charlotte Shout
Charlotte Shout, a month long Welcome to Charlotte event, began Wednesday but the real fun starts this weekend with a host of free events- free museums, and the 30th annual Yiasou Greek Festival on East Blvd through Sunday night. Here is the rundown of free museums for Saturday, 9/8:
Discovery Place (from 9am -11am)
Levine Museum of the New South
Charlotte Museum of History
Community School of the Arts
McColl Center for Visual Art
Charlotte Raptor Center (10-12am)
Historic Latta Plantation
Also in Charlotte Shout is the Charlotte Film Festival - kids day Sunday 9/9 -1pm at the Light Factory.
Later in the month there's a Jazz Festival, Art in the Park (very large exhibition of local artists at Freedom Park for a week) and an International day at UNCC. Those are just the highlights, check out full details at the Charlotte Cultural Guide.
A great family day? Start at Discovery Place for 1-2 hours and enjoy the acclaimed hands- on science museum, walk a block or two at most to the Levine Museum of the New South to help understand exactly what is the New South and Charlotte's place in it, and afterwards head over to ImagineOn-another 1-2 blocks and the fantastic technology oriented nationally recognized children's library across from Bobcat stadium. You can budget an hour, but most kids can stay longer. Then, time for some food? Why not head to the Greek Festival on East Blvd--Greek dancers await, great food and of course home made Baklava... if that's too much make Imagine-On another day, it is free all the time and there is easy free parking beneath the building. Our whole family have been to the Greek Festival many times- it is a great party with lots of things going on to keep almost everyone's interest, from kiddy rides to teen dancers, crafts and other fun things to do, each year they try and "out-do the previous year" - we'll be there Saturday night I am sure. Discount tickets are usually available at Harris Teeter.
If you are near Imagine-On you might see them testing the Lynx, the light rail. Next year- maybe later in the month- you will be able to take a train over to Dilworth and walk to the Greek Festival.
See you in Charlotte! terry
Monday, September 03, 2007
Sunday Night Steals And Deals
I know it's late Monday night-- but with kids in town, it being Labor Day- just not a lot of time to write. This week, I am looking at golf course properties, for us, on the course, and I reviewed 4 different categories, all on the golf course: under 350K, under 500k, 500- 800K and ...if price was no object.
In the under 350 category two great courses and communities met head to head with several entries. I chose a listing in Highland Creek over an identically priced Olde Sycamore home because it was a better lot, better view and it's tee location means fewer golf balls raining on unsuspecting folks out back. In addition, its full brick, over 3100 sf, with new floors. I give an edge to Highland Creek, consistently one of Charlotte's most popular communities. It is listed at 349,500, I'd try 333 or so, and see where it goes.
In the 350-500k category I chose a golf course home in the Highland Creek "move-up" neighborhood of Skybrook. This 3900 sf all brick home sits on 1/3 acre, just a short walk to the amenity center. Currently listed at 500k,this home is with a relo company, been on the market a while and needs some updating. At 500k, it's less than its counterparts which have around 3250-3500 sf for the same asking price. Try 475,000, plan on updating the kitchen, and come out ahead.
In the under 800K, the best values moved south with Ballantyne Country Club (BCC) and Providence Country Club (PCC) with two great golf course homes in this price range. Similar in size, I went with the older but slightly larger PCC home because of its lot, its great street, the many updates and a school preference that gives PCC an edge over BCC. This home has great curb appeal, a beautiful porch, newly finished hardwoods and new carpet. Add to it the double master bedrooms and over 4300 sf... quite a choice at the asking of 735, I think you'll have to pay 710 to get it.
In the price is no object category, a Ballantyne Country Club home was a clear winner, with only distant 2nd places. Near the cul-de sac of James Jack, it sit's on a ridge that overlooks 3 golf holes, a pond, and still has room for a free form in-ground pool and play area. Over 8000 sf on 3 floors, state of the art kitchens- bathrooms, media rooms, and a grand entrance make this quite a place. Listed at 2,495,000- I think 2.3 will get it. I know- lets get two!
So that's it for the week- next week I'm looking in town at a couple of condo price points and in Dilworth and Myers Park. As always, I represent buyers, and in the interest of fairness, none of these recommendations are my listings, and as such MLS rules prohibit use of pictures. E mail me for more information at Terry (at) TerryMcDonaldRE.com. My recommendations are based on square foot and asking price, community amenities and my knowledge of the area-- your opinion would likely vary, and further investigation would be required. See you next week!
In the under 350 category two great courses and communities met head to head with several entries. I chose a listing in Highland Creek over an identically priced Olde Sycamore home because it was a better lot, better view and it's tee location means fewer golf balls raining on unsuspecting folks out back. In addition, its full brick, over 3100 sf, with new floors. I give an edge to Highland Creek, consistently one of Charlotte's most popular communities. It is listed at 349,500, I'd try 333 or so, and see where it goes.
In the 350-500k category I chose a golf course home in the Highland Creek "move-up" neighborhood of Skybrook. This 3900 sf all brick home sits on 1/3 acre, just a short walk to the amenity center. Currently listed at 500k,this home is with a relo company, been on the market a while and needs some updating. At 500k, it's less than its counterparts which have around 3250-3500 sf for the same asking price. Try 475,000, plan on updating the kitchen, and come out ahead.
In the under 800K, the best values moved south with Ballantyne Country Club (BCC) and Providence Country Club (PCC) with two great golf course homes in this price range. Similar in size, I went with the older but slightly larger PCC home because of its lot, its great street, the many updates and a school preference that gives PCC an edge over BCC. This home has great curb appeal, a beautiful porch, newly finished hardwoods and new carpet. Add to it the double master bedrooms and over 4300 sf... quite a choice at the asking of 735, I think you'll have to pay 710 to get it.
In the price is no object category, a Ballantyne Country Club home was a clear winner, with only distant 2nd places. Near the cul-de sac of James Jack, it sit's on a ridge that overlooks 3 golf holes, a pond, and still has room for a free form in-ground pool and play area. Over 8000 sf on 3 floors, state of the art kitchens- bathrooms, media rooms, and a grand entrance make this quite a place. Listed at 2,495,000- I think 2.3 will get it. I know- lets get two!
So that's it for the week- next week I'm looking in town at a couple of condo price points and in Dilworth and Myers Park. As always, I represent buyers, and in the interest of fairness, none of these recommendations are my listings, and as such MLS rules prohibit use of pictures. E mail me for more information at Terry (at) TerryMcDonaldRE.com. My recommendations are based on square foot and asking price, community amenities and my knowledge of the area-- your opinion would likely vary, and further investigation would be required. See you next week!
White Water Blast!
I took the kids, a couple of "boy-girl friends" and off we went for our 5:00 adventure at the US National White Water Center. The sun was getting low, the temperature about 85 degrees, I enjoyed the look on my son Andrew's face- as I had watched Bobby, Amy and Judy's before him-- the look of awe. You really can't describe this place until you have seen it, and even then words and pictures don't do it justice. There was a gentle breeze and a good crowd filled the waters and viewing decks. We went through the training- I was concerned that the "newbies" didn't get the full training, since we were veterans it was cut a little short-- little did I know I'd have the ride of my life. Surfing in "Biscuits and Gravy" was a great way to work the water and our guide knew how to get us there. Body surfing through the rough stuff was yet to come.
I've decided the only thing that would have made it more fun was if I'd spent a bit more time in the boat-- this just wasn't my day. The first may have been the best, falling in slow motion at one of the first gates on the big run in front of most of the spectators. I may have been sitting too far out, but it really didn't matter as there are no exits, or eddy's for a long way, an no matter what the reason, I wasn't getting back in for a while.
Here I am catching a breath before I rolled and tumbled again- --feet first almost the whole way, down the chute and thought it can't last long-- and soon enough I was standing on the side in the big lake, the boat out ahead. Exhausted, scared a bit, and banged up more.
I've thought about it a lot and come up with no good answers. That was the first of three trips in, two quick dips on the other side, our momentum shifted rapidly, the boat went one way and I went another... once in Biscuits and Gravy, once just below, and by then I'd almost had enough. I insisted on another run through the big stuff, we made it perfectly without incident, not even close to leaving the boat and that was that
It's left me tired, bruised and banged up, but none the worse for wear. I'll tighten up the core muscles to give me just a bit more pull, I'll sit a little closer in on the boat edge, and I'm going again in a few weeks. It is just too much fun and too much a challenge to let go.
I've decided the only thing that would have made it more fun was if I'd spent a bit more time in the boat-- this just wasn't my day. The first may have been the best, falling in slow motion at one of the first gates on the big run in front of most of the spectators. I may have been sitting too far out, but it really didn't matter as there are no exits, or eddy's for a long way, an no matter what the reason, I wasn't getting back in for a while.
Here I am catching a breath before I rolled and tumbled again- --feet first almost the whole way, down the chute and thought it can't last long-- and soon enough I was standing on the side in the big lake, the boat out ahead. Exhausted, scared a bit, and banged up more. I've thought about it a lot and come up with no good answers. That was the first of three trips in, two quick dips on the other side, our momentum shifted rapidly, the boat went one way and I went another... once in Biscuits and Gravy, once just below, and by then I'd almost had enough. I insisted on another run through the big stuff, we made it perfectly without incident, not even close to leaving the boat and that was that
It's left me tired, bruised and banged up, but none the worse for wear. I'll tighten up the core muscles to give me just a bit more pull, I'll sit a little closer in on the boat edge, and I'm going again in a few weeks. It is just too much fun and too much a challenge to let go.
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