Sunday Night Steals and Deals- Myers Park- Charlotte

Back from a trip out east (more on that tomorrow) it is Sunday night and I've been thinking about Myers Park. I grew up in Washington DC and the area there most like Myers Park? Chevy Chase or upper Northwest. Well Myers Park is just 5-10 minutes to Uptown and has housed Charlotte's elites since the earliest days. Wide boulevards and 100 year old oak trees are common, as is original construction dating to the 1930' and 40's, with some a bit older still. These pictures should offer some flavor... so my Sunday Night question is how far would $1M go in Myers Park, a close in suburb of Charlotte, NC?
If you are going large, (over 3500 sf) you'll be getting houses on large roads, Runnymede, Providence and Sharon, with only one exception, a contemporary that don't sell well here. So I went after smaller restored home and found a beauty on the less crowded end of a popular street, Selwyn Avenue. Since this one has a website, I can show you this (non-mls) graphic

3300 heated square feet, plus 1900 sf unheated, with 4 br and 3 baths. This tastefully restored home has a great in town location, curb appeal for $709,000... any one like to try 675K and see where it takes us?

September Market Report, Prices Rising!

The average cost per square foot (cpsf) rose 6% in September as compared with the average cpsf in August 2006 on single Family homes in the greater Charlotte Area*, and unit sales were off again. Here are the numbers:
Average Cost /SF Rose from 110.46 to 117.14, 6.05% increase.
Units Sold Fell from 2537 (2006) to 2068, 18.49% decrease
Expired Listings Rose from 439 to 692, a 57% increase, but numerically, less than half the lost sales.

*The counties and area covered are Mecklenburg,Union,Iredell,Cabarrus,Gaston, Lincoln, Stanley, Lake Wylie and Lake Norman (whole)

I also looked at the 3 month period 7/1/2007 to 9/30/2007 versus the same period in 2006-- the three month numbers should give us a better trend line, and indeed the lost number of sales is lower, as is the appreciation.

3 Months Ending September 30
The Average Cost/sf rose from 114.25 to 119.63, an increase of 4.71%
The Units Sold fell from a high of 9013 (2006) to 7848, and 12.93% decrease
Expired Listings rose 49%, again the increased number of expireds is about 50% of the lost sales.

Conclusions? Overall, the market is obviously slower, but as price gains remain steady, I'll have to repeat that the value fundamentals in our market are still steady, rock steady. A 13% decrease in sales is significant, but we know that 7-10% of the buyers are out due to the extinction of sub prime lending, and we know that many folks can't sell their home in the northeast, in the west or Florida. So the result is that with 13% fewer buyers, our prices rose. Excellent!

Now most of you know I don't care for our bogus Days on Market stat, but the Absorption rate is another matter, and based on 4170 Active listings, we have less than 9 weeks of inventory based on September sales. Very Good!

I expect to hear the New Home sales are worse. They were quite late in reacting to the national slowdown that began 2 years ago, so their inventories are high. Once again, if you are buying new, only buy an inventory- at a discount!

I'll be doing area reports in the next several days.

You Aren't From Around Here Are Yuh?

The Charlotte Observer did one of their "state of the city" articles today asking the question of the hour: "Is Charlotte Still a Southern City?" Anyone who has worked with me or reads my stuff knows that for a long time I've told people that Charlotte is a large modern city in the South, but not a southern city. Now thanks to the prodigious database editor of the Observer, Ted Mellnik, we have these numbers to prove my point, thanks Ted.
1. In Mecklenburg County, 57% of the folks living here were not born here, and 62% of those were born outside the South.
2. 88,000 moved to the area, summer '05 to summer 2006. After a few exports, we realized a net gain of 74,000.
3. Where do they come from? In Mecklenburg County, they come from:
Northeast 25%
Midwest 12%
West 6%
South 33% (includes Florida- is this really the South? South Miami maybe!)
Outside US 24%

4. The definitive answer: there are more pizza shops than barbeque shops listed in the Yellow Pages. And yes, you can get pie by the slice here.

Now be aware there is a 20 mile rule-- 20 miles out in any direction and you could be back in the Old South. But here in Charlotte things are different.

That doesn't sit well with some of the natives and at times they fight a rear-guard action, trying to put the genie back in the growth bottle so they can return to the good old days of the 70's and 80's when they ran things.

Ah well, here's to the future! Charlotte's best days are ahead of her! Never been here? Well have a look a the slide show below...


I'll see you in Charlotte! See the full Observer article here.

Sunday Night Steals and Deals

Tonight we will continue looking at Huntersville, NC, a little higher up on the price ladder...under 600k, under 800k and under 1 million.

In the under 600k range, we now see many features become common place. Mostly full brick veneer, granite counter tops, Stainless Steel appliances, and tile bathrooms. Neighborhood features step up a level as well, including golf, clubhouse, pool and tennis courts. Several of these homes were on the Golf course. Of, course. lot sizes are larges, ranging from .32to .94 acres.

Here is a case where $/sf is not always the best measure of value. The range here was 131 - 170 $/sf. Your 'value' in these homes would be in direct proportion to your interest in Golf, no necessarily in the amount of total space in the home. The same goes for the one house that had a private pool in the yard. Either you want it or it has no 'value', and may even be a negative, in your estimation of value.

Having said all that, the choice in this range was a 3866 sf home in Skybrook. A golf course community that has all the amenities mentioned above. At $151/sf it is solidly in the middle of the range at $584,900. Built in 2004, many of the new home hassles, like establishing a yard and initial window treatments are already in place. Of course new owners may have different tastes for some items, but changes can be made over time, not immediately. The house has a Master Suite down, a feature more and more in demand.

My choice in the under 800k range was easy. There was only one available, and newly on the market, as well. Also in Skybrook, priced at $799,900, the distinctive feature is a fully finished basement. Larger than the others at 5861 sf, it has 6 bedrooms and 6 baths, sitting on .57 acres!

In the under 1 million category, we see some true custom homes and estates, with land up to 15 acres or Lake view or even Waterfront. My choice is the Waterfront home. This is new construction, 3561 sf at $899,900. There is a private deck off the master bedroom with a lake view. This home even has a Private pier on Lake Norman (this is becoming a rare item, as every lot is not automatically allowed to have a pier). All these features make this one a real 'Deal', if it's in your range.

As I've said before, due to advertising restrictions, I cannot show pictures of these homes here, but you can email me and I will be glad to send you a full property report.

See you next week.

Carolina MLS DOM: Delibarately BAD

Breaking Down The Carolina MLS Numbers, first of at least two post.

Well after quite a number of tries, I was able to duplicate the results for the MLS August press release with one exception, Days on Market... that's not surprising since Days on Market, DOM, is a meaningless statistic the way Carolina Home computes it.

This is first in a series on our local MLS and will be included in the transparent real estate section of the blog- in this post I examine how the Carolina MLS and the DOM numbers are deliberately inaccurate and how they work against buyers and their agents.

Good agents and brokers use the MLS daily and it is generally a very reliable source of data- a truth teller for the property, and a truth teller for the market. It needs to be because customers depend on it... we send them "Customer Full Reports" in their email every day. They can and frequently do compare properties side by side for features and square foot for square foot. Accuracy is so important, an Agent or Broker can be sued for knowingly putting in false information, and censured by the real estate commission for accidentally putting in false information.

So why isn't MLS's Days on Market accurate? And why did I say deliberately above? You be the judge.

For the Carolina MLS, and many, but not all MLS across the country, the Days on Market given by the MLS don't start necessarily when the house first went on the market. DOM is often an indicator of seller motivation and the general health of the market. A seller with a DOM of 200 is more likely to take a lower offer than one with a DOM of 5, wouldn't you think? That might be important information to have when considering how much to offer, wouldn't it? But what if the reverse were true? That DOM 5 was actually over a year old, could you miss making an offer here? Yes you could and the truth is client or agent don't know from our MLS reports. Interestingly, the inaccurate DOM does not appear on the "Customer Full Report" only on the "Agent Full Report"

As an aside, I spoke to our MLS today, asking how they arrived at their DOM reported in their last Press Release? I was told by their Data base manager that the "Numbers were flaky from the start." Back to the customers...

Customers frequently ask, "How many days has it been on the market?" We refer to the Agent Full Report and tell them. And it may not be correct at all. How is that so? Well in the example above, in the Carolina MLS, the DOM 5 could have been on the market much longer than the DOM 200. Say that again? Thats right, the DOM 5 could have been on the market longer, because the way CMLS measures it, it is from the last Listing Date, not the original listing date. In the example above, the DOM 5 listing could have been on the market for one year, 365 days, then fired their first agent. A day later they re-listed with a new agent. Presto, new listing date (latest listing date) and a brand new DOM, 4 days later we (buyer and buyer agent) are reviewing and it says DOM 5. Can we research this and find the true answer? Yes, but again, why is this Wrong answer on the MLS Sheet WE strive so hard to make accurate?

Two additional questions: Why isn't DOM on the "Customer Full Report"? and Why do they measure it from the last listing date, instead of the first, like so many other MLS's do? In the example above, the Listing Date and DOM should have been taken from the first listing date, not the last, for accurate DOM.

Why? It is figured from the last List date on the MLS to yield the smallest (DOM) number to protect Sellers. It not being on the Customer Full Report protects the MLS from liability, and in the process they leave us Buyer Agents liable. What? We're liable as Agents when the MLS printed the info? Yes because we tell the customer the DOM from the Agent Full Report. That means the liability is with us, if we don't also explain every time we say "DOM is 20, but that number doesn't mean much I'll research it." They then ask why it doesn't mean much...

Then after explaining why this number is not to be trusted, the customer then asks, which other numbers can not be trusted? It happened to me this past month, just this way working with an astute California couple moving to Charlotte. He pointed out to me the differences and asked the same questions I am trying to answer here.

I think it is clear-- Days on market should be from the first listing date- as I understand in California if its re-listed within 30 days it is the same listing. And I think it should be on the Customer Full Report-- no reason to hide it and set up an inexperienced agent to mislead his client by not doing his homework.

What other numbers on your MLS are hidden from the customer? What other numbers do the MLS use to favor sellers? Ah the subject of my next post. There is a movement nationwide towards transparent real estate, I'm getting on board because transparent real estate is better real estate.

And its been this way forever? Do you think they don't know the DOM numbers are bad?
I knew you were a smart crowd! :)

Against the Transit Tax Repeal

Oh let me count the ways! Let's start with these facts I think most of us could agree on: Charlotte is growing at an extremely high rate, congestion is high here by any measure, and that growth will continue for the foreseeable future. Therefore,

The tax, .5 cents added to our sales tax, is good policy because:

1. Roughly 2/3's of the annual $68Million in revenue has supported expanding the Charlotte bus service, rapidly addressing short term needs, and 1/3 supports light rail, long term needs.

2. The sales tax is a regional tax, in other words commuters from Iredell, Union County, Cabarrus, York, Gaston-- everyone coming in to Charlotte and purchasing goods here helps pay the tax, in other words, those who benefit from our economy need to be involved in improving Charlotte infrastructure. If the tax is repealed? Ask the pro-repeal guys, it will fall on the shoulders of Charlotte and Mecklenburg County to pay for it through property taxes. This is an easy economic question for city of Charlotte voters.

3. It allows the city to guide its development and reconstruction. It is inescapable that the "transportation policy" is a "land use policy" in disguise, as a detractor points out. Yup sure is- just like a highway plan! Real estate agents in North Carolina have long known that if you want to invest in land, the first stop you should make is Raleigh to see where the roads will be in 15-20 years! Likewise, when choosing transit corridors, there are by definition "winners" (those owning property on or near the corridors) and Losers ( those owning property along competitive avenues) which accounts for some of the cut with a knife screams of "conspiracy" by Transit detractors.

4. It is something we can do. It will not solve the area's congestion by itself, not by a long shot,
but as most know, federal funds for mass transit have dried up and highway policy is set in Raleigh.

5. Suppiorting the tax doesn't keep us from fighting for more roads for the Charlotte region. WE NEED TO! I am a supporter of Republican's Phil Berger and Paul Stam's advocacy that the transportation fund stop being looted, raided, or plundered -your choice of words for a state taking transportation tax revenues to pay for other measures, of a $1.5B road bond for NC being placed on the November ballot, and addressing the archaic way the trust fund allocates highway spending without regard to growth, congestion or highway miles traveled. Berger and Stam also call on Governor Easley and the Democratically controlled state house to take transportation and infrastructure seriously which means NOT cutting the funding by 41M as the current budget does. If education was a winner in the state budget, transportation was a loser.

The critics have been against transit from the start, the cost over runs just gave them the cover to get this on the ballot. Just a note, the price of transit projects is very hard to predict accurately, and if you lived in Seattle you'd think our cost over run small. Many of the tranist critic are the same critics who told you we could get more schools by voting against the last school bond, how did that work out for you? Many of the arguments are the same too. "It cost too much", or "I'm not getting enough for my community" or "We're over-taxed", or "My voters won't ride it." All of these arguments can be translated simply into this reality, "I am not getting what I want."

The sales tax spreads the cost of transit improvements over the greater Charlotte community, and is decidedly more fair than raising my Charlotte property taxes. Most believe a family of four pays roughly $59 more for the sales tax-- and to get similar revenues from our Charlotte property taxes? $160 per year per property owner to fund the $68M the tax produces.

We, the citizens of Charlotte who believe in Charlotte's future, need to take the lead. We need to take the lead on transit, highways, public safety and all the policy's needed to keep this city the great and the wonderful place it is-- for families, for business, and for the state. We need to support forward looking politicians- and communicate that support through our votes and presence to those who believe in the future of Charlotte and this state, and NOT those that believe the city's best days are behind them. I include Mayor McGrory in this forward-thinking group, he has led the way on transit and taken political heat for it. We need to push our State representatives to do what is necessary to provide roads for the 21st Century for North Carolina and Charlotte.

And the .5 cent tax benefits every Charlotte resident because for every person taken off the highway... that makes my drive (and those who have to or prefer to drive) around town a little better.

Vote for Charlotte's Future, Vote NO on the repeal, and lets beat it 3 to 1.

Real Estate Headlines

These headlines just came across the wire (love that expression, culled from my vast email list)

1/3 of purchaser loans originated by Mortgage Brokers failed to close in August, 2007. WOW!

1/2 Fed drop is like putting the lending industry on steroids, jet fuel in place of regular fuel... hopefully that will translate positively as it percolates into the nation-wide housing market. The Fed seem's serious about heading off a possible housing recession-- that's good news.

The priciest zip codes in the country, from Forbes magazine . Always fun, surprises? Yes, number 1 is a new Jersey zip, famous Beverly Hills-90210 was 40th and only 3 Carolina zips made the top 100, all on the coast, 2 in NC one in SC. Check it out

August Market Report- 28209 and 28211

The SouthPark area is well known for its convenience, shopping, quality homes and value.

Average	2006	2007	% Inc/dec
Cost Per SF	198.34	220.68	11.26
# Solds	77	54	-29.87
Average Sales Price		$564,046
ATS Index		106.68
Months Inventory		3.57

It is a well deserved reputation. Despite 30% fewer buyers in the market, instead of price decline, prices are up11.26%. Wow. Clearly this is an area newcomers and old timers alike truly love. And the sellers and agents are doing a good job of keeping it real with an ATS of 106%. Inventory at 3.5 reflects the far fewer buyers in this market in August 2007.
See recent pictures of the SouthPark here.

August Market Report- 28270

August, 2007 Zip Code 28270, central South Charlotte

Average 2006 2007 % Inc/dec
CPSF 117.74 122.87 4.36
# Solds 73 51 -30.14

Aug-07 Average Sales Price $326,842
ATS Index 107.68
Months Inventory 2.71



Average cost per square foot of the solds rose 4.36% in August over August 2006. Number of units fell 30% over a year ago. The ATS index (Asking To Selling) See here for a full explanation- Average Per Sg FT of the Listed to the Average SF of the Solds,- the average listed is asking 107% of the same months solds.

If current sales paces continues, there is an estimated 2.71 months supply of homes.

What of the 30% fewer sales? There were 30% fewer buyers in this zip this month, but prices went up. The market tells the truth, this is still a very popular zip code, central and with good schools.

All data is derived from the Carolina MLS, but is not provided by the MLS

Google's Done It Again...Too Much Fun

I've written about Google's Picasa, one of my picks for best new software for 2006- well Google's wonderful free photo editor just got better. Picasa Web Albums has been online for a while- 1 Gig free photo storage, but Google quietly improved it dramatically in late June. Now you can geotag your photos-- put your photos on a Google map. Have a look:



You will have to click on a photo, then go back one level to see the map view. But what a view,it lays out the whole community. I'm waiting for Google to make this a bit easier.

Like Slide.com, I can insert my Picasa Album slide show anywhere- I replaced my CharlotteCommunties Slide Show with my Picasa intro-- I like the Google better, see it here.

Just as with Slide.com, I can change the look of my front page with a new slide show--but less advertising with the Google. Now when I receive a request about an area, I'll just send the link, or maybe embed the slide show! I'm working on a My Mapps application that will show where and at what price the Inventory is located in our fair city, with links back to the neighborhood slide show. I'll post it here when I'm done. As I said, this is too much fun!

Bye Bye Slide.com, you were great, I'll miss you.

Sunday Night Steals And Deals- Condos, In-Town Single Family

Tonight I'm looking at Uptown condos and intown living in Dilworth. First the condo's. There is a solid selection, so this week I'm looking at the under 230K, 2 bedroom market. The ideal first home for a young professional, perhaps taking a roomate to offset some of the mortgage. With its convenient in-town location, you won't be paying for parking.

Tonight's winner: this condo is located in the First Ward and has 2 bedrooms and 2 baths, at just over 960 sf. This is a penthouse with spectacular city views, 10' ceilings, granite, hardwood floors and more. All appliances are included and the list price is 227,000... we'd try around 214,000 and see what we get back. You'll have to go considerably out South Blvd for a better value.

In Dilworth I was shopping for single families under 500K. Dilworth was the city's first suburb, built from around 1900-1925. The homes are being rebuilt, for the 2nd and 3rd time. Price ranges run from 350K for something in need of remodelling, o well over $1M for larger fully remodeled homes.

Tonight' winner Has 1976 sf, 3 bedrooms and 2 and one half baths. It is a complete house, with deck , yard and porch on one of the 2 or 3 best streets in Dilworth. Walk to the trolley, walk to downtown Dilworth, this house is convenient, and priced right at $500,000. Still, an offer of 475 makes sense, and see where it takes us. Larger homes have sold on this street for over 1M this year. The photo is a typical bungalow style Dilworth house.

As always, I represent buyers, and in the interest of fairness, none of these recommendations are my listings, and as such MLS rules prohibit use of pictures. E mail me for more information at Terry (at) TerryMcDonaldRE.com. My recommendations are based on square foot and asking price, community amenities and my knowledge of the area-- your opinion would likely vary, and further investigation would be required. See you next week!

Charlotte Real Estate Market Report: August 2007

Good news on Charlotte real estate prices! For the month ending August 31, area wide prices are UP 5.1% compared with August 2006, comparing average cost per square foot prices of Charlotte single family homes from the MLS. Some news at first glance was alarming, the number of units sold are way down -20% from August 2006- but I believe I can show that this isn't the bad news it might appear to be to the casual observer. (No I didn't say Charlotte Observer) The photo is a Dilworth beauty built in 1903.

What does it mean? I've three broad conclusions, you may have more, tell me what you think:

First, in the face of a nationwide housing recession/depression, and with20% fewer buyers in our marketplace, our prices are up 5.1%. Our economic fundamentals and the valuation in our real estate market remain rock-solid steady. I've said it before- we didn't experience the "bubble" here on the way up, we won't (as a whole) feel it on the way down. Our prices have and continued to grow the old fashioned way, caused by increased population, jobs and increased economic activity- not speculation.

2nd, with unit sales 20% off in August (and Expired listings up 53%!) it is clear Charlotte is feeling the affects of both the sub-prime and the national real estate market downturn through fewer relocations and fewer sales- but how bad is this really for Charlotte? Not as bad as one might think, this reduction in units sold takes us back only to 2004 sales levels. In other words, it is just taking us back a few years with our overall valuations still rising.

3rd- Assuming we have 20% fewer buyers in the marketplace, then the homes not selling could be called the "marginal houses"- the bottom 20% of the market is what is not selling. The question arises what defines the "marginal house"? The Million dollar question don't you think? The 53% increase in Expired listings over August 2006 offers a clue. I think the majority of the "marginal houses" would fall into one of two categories- those in good condition priced too high to sell, and those whose condition does not compare well with other homes in the same price range. In both cases, unrealistic pricing strategies of the sellers or agent's is to blame--remedied by a good agent who prices the home correctly, and home sellers who keep their homes in good to excellent condition.

These comparisons are made easy by the Internet and the increasing transparency of the real estate transaction through pictures , virtual tours, and comparable sales information-- buyers can compare homes side by side and those priced too high, for any reason, don't make the cut.

This too is good news-- with 20% fewer transactions the market is correcting itself, cutting out the fluff, keeping the remaining house sales priced well (indicating our strong fundamentals) and, if it persists it suggests fewer commissions and a shake out of the real estate agents as well as the bottom 20% may seek employment elsewhere- definitely good news!

Let me know what you think. And what are the characteristics of the 20% buyers we lost? Will they be back? Ah, the subject of a future post...

August

August was a great for me-- I was able to welcome 5 new families to the Charlotte area. Thanks to all who had a hand in the relocations

I'll be working on the Charlotte August Real Estate numbers this weekend to see how the rest of the community did... it will be interesting to see how the national slowdown is affecting Charlotte.

Sunday Night Steals And Deals

I know it's late Monday night-- but with kids in town, it being Labor Day- just not a lot of time to write. This week, I am looking at golf course properties, for us, on the course, and I reviewed 4 different categories, all on the golf course: under 350K, under 500k, 500- 800K and ...if price was no object.

In the under 350 category two great courses and communities met head to head with several entries. I chose a listing in Highland Creek over an identically priced Olde Sycamore home because it was a better lot, better view and it's tee location means fewer golf balls raining on unsuspecting folks out back. In addition, its full brick, over 3100 sf, with new floors. I give an edge to Highland Creek, consistently one of Charlotte's most popular communities. It is listed at 349,500, I'd try 333 or so, and see where it goes.

In the 350-500k category I chose a golf course home in the Highland Creek "move-up" neighborhood of Skybrook. This 3900 sf all brick home sits on 1/3 acre, just a short walk to the amenity center. Currently listed at 500k,this home is with a relo company, been on the market a while and needs some updating. At 500k, it's less than its counterparts which have around 3250-3500 sf for the same asking price. Try 475,000, plan on updating the kitchen, and come out ahead.

In the under 800K, the best values moved south with Ballantyne Country Club (BCC) and Providence Country Club (PCC) with two great golf course homes in this price range. Similar in size, I went with the older but slightly larger PCC home because of its lot, its great street, the many updates and a school preference that gives PCC an edge over BCC. This home has great curb appeal, a beautiful porch, newly finished hardwoods and new carpet. Add to it the double master bedrooms and over 4300 sf... quite a choice at the asking of 735, I think you'll have to pay 710 to get it.

In the price is no object category, a Ballantyne Country Club home was a clear winner, with only distant 2nd places. Near the cul-de sac of James Jack, it sit's on a ridge that overlooks 3 golf holes, a pond, and still has room for a free form in-ground pool and play area. Over 8000 sf on 3 floors, state of the art kitchens- bathrooms, media rooms, and a grand entrance make this quite a place. Listed at 2,495,000- I think 2.3 will get it. I know- lets get two!
So that's it for the week- next week I'm looking in town at a couple of condo price points and in Dilworth and Myers Park. As always, I represent buyers, and in the interest of fairness, none of these recommendations are my listings, and as such MLS rules prohibit use of pictures. E mail me for more information at Terry (at) TerryMcDonaldRE.com. My recommendations are based on square foot and asking price, community amenities and my knowledge of the area-- your opinion would likely vary, and further investigation would be required. See you next week!

A New Listing...

do you like the format?

So How Much Is Enough? A $50,000 Buyer Bonus?

So how much is enough? Take a look at the flyer I received by email today. Suppose the home sells for 1.3M, that is a 39k Buyer Side-- plus 50K, 89K 6.8%-- not the 12% I've heard from AZ but still, loads of dough. Two questions, 1) Is it unethical to show this home even if you make your buyer aware of the agent bonus 2) As the LA, is it unethical to make this offer to increase showings... do you think it will increase showings? I do. The last question I have is a rhetorical one, with offers like this, is it any wonder that the Redfin's of the world want a peace of our business... or that they can suggest we are lazy bums not sufficiently motivated by 39k so they need to bribe us with 50K more?


$50,000 Selling Agent BONUS!
Did you know average price per square foot of waterfront homes in Cornelius is over $300 per square foot???

Offered At: $1,450,000

* Waterfront
* 3 Level Home
* Private Dock
* Year Round Deep Water
* 3 Car Garage
* Large Rec Room with Full Bar and Wine Room
* 5612 HLA with additional 700+ unfinished sq ft for another bedroom/bathroom


COMMENTS:

Custom built waterfront home in Cornelius is listed $300,000 below value(5,612 x 312=$1.75M)! Some agents have not shown this home because of it's proximity to I77. We are giving you 50,000 reasons to show it! This 3-year old custom home couldn't be rebuilt today for under $1,000,000! Just ask yourself - what would a half-acre waterfront lot, with a private dock/pier and deep water in Cornelius cost? $500k?, $600k? the average is $700k just for the land! Bring your buyer now for an unbelievable deal - plus a $50,000 BONUS!

Scarrier yet Zillow ranks us as the 3rd strongest market in the nation... yeow.

Sunday Night Steals And Deals

Everyone knows that Charlotte real estate is appreciating in the midst of a nationwide housing downturn... but it is still a buyers market here and there are deals to be had if you know
where to look.

So each Sunday I'll search the Charlotte listings for the best* property in a given class on the market NOW. In the interest of fairness I will exclude any of my own listings. I'll be evaluating "most house for the money" by square feet, features, age (new or newer) and location. On the water I'll add access and water features. Each week I'll take a look the best of South Charlotte, 4000 sf homes for under 400K-- and the best waterfront of Lake Norman, and Lake Wylie.

The Week's Winners

In South Charlotte, compiled from zip codes 28270,28277 and 28278, this home in 28277 has 5 br, 3.5 baths and is all brick with a 1/3 acre lot and finished basement. Children would attend some of the best schools in S Charlotte with McKee Road Elementary, Jay M. Robinson Middle and Ardrey Kell High School. 5 minutes to grocery store, 7-8 minutes to Target, it needs some work, and is being sold as is at 399,900. E Mail Terry (at) TerryMcDonaldRE.com

At the Lakes, best under $800K
In the north, I selected a 3500 sf log cabin in Sherrills Ford on Lake Norman. This open and airy log cabin has 3 levels, the lower leverl has a 2nd kitchen, a view and could easily be a mother-in law suite. Add a terrific dock including good water, a boatlift and slip. Built in 2002, this Old Hickory log home has a wrap around deck and great creek view. Catawba county taxes, .53 per hundred make lake living affordable. Asking 675K, taxes about $2,600 per year. Wow! E Mail Terry (at) TerryMcDonaldRE.com

At Lake Wylie, the smaller but closer lake to Charlotte, I chose a house in South Carolina. This traditional all brick home has over 3800 sf, 5 br, 3.5 ba , a finished basement, a screen porch and a large lot- 2.2 acres, a lot of it fenced! The water is deep, shady slip and boatlift included.
this one is $780K. Well-regarded Clover schools, unbelievably cheap SC taxes. E Mail Terry (at) TerryMcDonaldRE.com

*Best in the exclusive view of your host, based on the data I have, my understanding of the area, and since I'm not the listing agent and may have not seen the property, my opinion may change upon visiting and of course your results may vary! Due to advertising restrictions, I can't show the photos but if you see something you like, just send me an email, I'll send you a Property Report. If you are interested in the property, I would be happy represent you as your Buyer Agent. Remember, transparent real estate is better real estate.

Update on Iraq from the 82nd Airborne

Ever wonder what is really going on in Iraq? I mean what is spin? Optimistic thinking? Reality? Just what is going on...Do you? I know I do, so it was with great interest that I read of a half dozen en-listed and non-com officers who wrote a report about the Iraq they saw. If you are interested on the view from a soldier's level, check it out here, (link may be hidden by subscription NYTimes) it was published on the Op-Ed page of the New York Times Sunday. Regardless if you agree or not, it is a powerful statement of the obstacles faced by genuine American heroes. Also, in full disclosure, I have a son who is an officer in the US Navy.

I know its not our normal Charlotte stuff, but take a minute and take in their view. It could change you. We need to do the right thing. terry

The Real Deal on 2nd Quarter Charlotte Home Prices

Yes I know, Charlotte Home prices are up-- up 7% says the Charlotte Observer today. National real estate powerhouse Zillow , ranked Charlotte third best in the country with prices up 9%--so is that it? Well no, not exactly... not wanting to rain on anybody's parade-- how is Charlotte real estate really doing?

The Observer just asks what the average sales price of a home was-- with no comparison by size, area distribution, or type. (single family, townhouse or condo) I think it is impossible to say how much property has appreciated in 2007 from those numbers. And Zillow? Check their last post on my site, Response from Zillow, to see if you can figure out how they compute their Zestimates, both regionally and nationally. I don't think I get it yet.

So how did I figure the 2nd quarter results you see below? Easy, I computed average square foot price of homes in the area, over the three months of April through June 30, and compared it to the same area, in the same three months in 2006. Its simple division, and the Average Square Foot price of Sold homes increased 4.73% on 7.58% fewer sales.

Here then are the 2nd quarter numbers:

	Charlotte Metro Area, 2nd Quareter 2007
	2006	2007	Inc/Dec %
Solds
Units Sold	14084	13017	-7.58
Average Cost Per SF	110.77	116.01	4.73
Average Days on Market	83	77	-7.23
Expired Listings	1922	2439	26.90

The obvious is that the average cost per sq foot rose 4.73% in the 2nd quarter of 2007 compared to the same period in 2006. But the number of units fell 7.6%, and look at the "Expireds"-- expired listings, those that didn't sell and expired, are up more than 25%.

So then if the number of sales is off less than 8% , but the prices are up 4.73%, that's good, isn't it? In today's market, across the country it is good. While Zillow and I disagree about how good Charlotte is doing, we are in agreement that Charlotte is making it through the national housing decline very well.

There you have the three different methodologies, no prize for guessing which I favor. I like mine because it is based on actual sales, totally objective numbers, that when taken in the aggregate, and averaged based on the heated square feet of a home, should be a representative sample and the leading indicator of how well Charlotte is appreciating. Also, they are easily verified by anyone with access to the MLS.

In the past I've done market reports by zip code, but I'm changing that and I'm working on a list of "bell weather" neighborhoods to keep you posted on-- and taken together, they will provide a unique "value index" not unlike the Dow Jones.

So why can't I just shut up and be happy with Zillows 9% or the Observer's 7%? Isn't that great?As a Realtor, wouldn't I want those numbers to be true? Yes I would and we are doing well, just not that well, and next week I may be sitting in your house, trying to estimate the value of your home to put it on the market. I'm sure you will have seen some of these headlines... and I want your home to sell at the best price, in the shortest time. One thing is certain, transparent real estate is here to stay and only the homes priced right will sell.

I'll post further on these 2nd quarter results as time allows.

tm

A Response From Zillow

Update- Zillow announced yesterday that Charlotte MSA prices were up 9% over last year, 3rd best in the nation... which would be great if true, however my research, easily done with our MLS, indicates otherwise.

Zillow responded in another forum to my question on how these numbers were created:

Hi, it's David from Zillow;

Terry -

Zillow is a database of all homes not just those that are currently on the market and so we calculate Zestimate values for all of the homes in our database. With this database we can report the value trends of all homes not just those that recently sold. The beauty of this approach is that it is not skewed by a change in the mix of homes that are selling - a common problem for the traditional approach of reporting value trends using only an analysis of recent sales

I think I understand that David, but I have two questions:
Your national and local MSA numbers are then the addition of all of your Zestimates, which were created from the extrapolations from actual comparable property sales, correct? Essentially additions of estimates based on comparable sales, right? Then if I took ALL the sales over a longer period of time, and compared them to the same time and place last year, our numbers should be similar shouldn't they? Well they aren't, they are way off.

Your President has stated that as much as 38% of your Zestimates are more than 10% off, why isn't your margin of error compounded in a fast moving market where prices could be going up or down relatively quickly. I'm not a statistician, but it seems that margin of error must go up in these conditons.

While our numbers and yours do correspond in some regards- for example our more expensive homes have taken the hardest hit- your data indicated the medium to large home have taken a harder hit, a pretty similar picture, there is still a huge variance in our actual results from the MLS which while not 100% complete is a good representative sample of non-builder sales.

I've recently done research on two of the top three leading zips, with appreciation based on average square foot prices from the MLS, reports showing them for the 3 month period ending July 31. In one zip code, there was price appreciation 50% below yours, and in the other? Double digit depreciation! The zip codes in question, 28277 appreciated 4.5%, and 28278 depreciated 11.97%--over May, June and July- quite a difference to Zillow's +9%, the actual reports are below for your review.

Why is this important? Because I am sure one of our local papers will pick up the Zillow press release and report it, probably uncritically, and I'll have to face a seller next week who thinks his property has gone up 9% when it might have fallen 10% from last year.

David, I'd like to be able to use your numbers--really I would if I had a sense they were atleast roughly accurate. They are impressive by their sheer volume and I know that a lot of big-time crunching has been done, but I just can't not explain the difference between our methods or why your addition of estimates would be a better measure of my market than the actual data, as long as there are sufficient transactions to be meaningful statistically. Here are my zip code Market Reports
Market Report 28277- July 2007
Market Report 28278- July 2007

Don't get me wrong, I know Charlotte has fared much much better than most of the country, but the headlines need to be right. Your comments are appreciated. terry

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