Antiquity in Cornelius

Antiquity is the largest mixed-use community of homes, offices and retail since Birkdale, and promises to change both Cornelius and Davidson over the next decade. The covered bridge on the right is it's northern entry from Davidson, and the Cornelius entry will be at the Town Center in revitalized Cornelius. This community will be a major real estate addition for the north Charlotte suburbs.

Antiquity is just getting started, roads are in and the models just opened and the first homeowners are moving in October, 2007. Two very well thought of builders, Cunnane and Meeting Street Homes, are building detailed period style town homes from the high 170's, and single families in the 300's. I'll have more in future posts, but if you have some vision, their early prices are attractive. I think you'll like their style and if you've visited other communities by Cunnane , you know they are also know for their appreciation! The photos below are from the Cunnane side, Meeting Street pictures will be up next week.



It is a front porch community in walking distance to downtown Cornelius or downtown Davidson, a new community connecting the older Cornelius with the eclectic college town of Davidson.

Charlotte 2 Year Price Increase 2nd in the Nation

Everyone likes to have their work validated, even indirectly. A new website for the investment industry uses my market reporting methodology-- the change in Sold Average Square Foot Price-- as their means to compare price appreciation in local housing markets. Charlotte ranks 2nd in growth nationally according to Radar Logic,11.3%, growth in the Sold Average Cost per square foot. (cps)Radar Logic is a tech company serving the investment banking industry.

For some time I've had issues with the Carolina MLS's regular reporting and the Charlotte Observer's regular coverage of the monthly median price index. It offers little in statistical meaning because it doesn't adjust for changes in average square foot of homes sold, so if one month people buy homes that average 50 sf larger than the year before, there is no meaningful comparison of price. That's why our market reports vary from theirs; our numbers here and for our clients are always based on the average cost per square foot of the sold property. SOLD COST PER SQUARE FOOT! And it isn't hard to figure, it's a mathematical process called division.

Here is the Radar Logic view, "The price per square foot metric provides a powerful tool to analyze housing markets because it significantly reduces the influence of property sizes on overall housing prices that can skew results."

Couldn't say it any better.

Sunday Night Steals and Deals- Myers Park- Charlotte

Back from a trip out east (more on that tomorrow) it is Sunday night and I've been thinking about Myers Park. I grew up in Washington DC and the area there most like Myers Park? Chevy Chase or upper Northwest. Well Myers Park is just 5-10 minutes to Uptown and has housed Charlotte's elites since the earliest days. Wide boulevards and 100 year old oak trees are common, as is original construction dating to the 1930' and 40's, with some a bit older still. These pictures should offer some flavor... so my Sunday Night question is how far would $1M go in Myers Park, a close in suburb of Charlotte, NC?
If you are going large, (over 3500 sf) you'll be getting houses on large roads, Runnymede, Providence and Sharon, with only one exception, a contemporary that don't sell well here. So I went after smaller restored home and found a beauty on the less crowded end of a popular street, Selwyn Avenue. Since this one has a website, I can show you this (non-mls) graphic

3300 heated square feet, plus 1900 sf unheated, with 4 br and 3 baths. This tastefully restored home has a great in town location, curb appeal for $709,000... any one like to try 675K and see where it takes us?

Top Ten Reasons To Vote For Mecklenburg County School Bonds

So lets lay it out here--our schools are heavily overcrowded, and the older schools need repair, these facts are not really in dispute, most of the dispute centers on "who" should get "what" plus a few folks who would like to defund the public schools for a variety of reasons including something that happened way back in 1957. In truth we need about 1.4B in new schools to meet enrollment needs in the next five -seven years. This 516B is just the first installment. So I'd like you to see the whole picture, and get behind the larger 1.4B number.

Do you know that temporary trailers house more than 25,000 students? did you know that 20% of the "temporary classrooms" are more than 30 years old?

Each of us will have our own most important reason, but I think one or more will appeal to you. The reasons divide on two broad fronts: economics and staying true to our American ideals.
See what you think. Not registered? You must register by October 12 to vote.
Oh, and you better grab a cup of coffee, it's a long post.

Top Ten Reasons to VOTE YES NOV 6 for the School Bond

1. It is a compromise, but a fair one.
It is only the first installment towards resolving all the building needs of this large school system. Many very real needs won't be met with this bond-- so some citizens must look beyond their immediate needs, and trust that we will do the next two installments, so that those needs are met and everyone benefits. It is a new day, we have the votes, don't let them divide us.

2.Today's children are tomorrows leaders, citizens or criminals.
It is much cheaper to educate than imprison-- average annual CMS cost per student per year, $5800, Average College Tuition $10,000, average prison inmate cost $24,000 per year. It's the economics!

3. The #1 Reason business give for relocating here-a highly skilled and trained workforce.
Did you know that by 2014, 80% of all factory jobs will require post-secondary education, factory jobs! We want more business in Charlotte, we need more quality schools, note the business council and Chamber of Commerce are 100% behind these bonds. Or we could be like those Northern cities where when kids graduate there are no jobs so they move elsewhere.
It's the economics!

4. Test scores rose 13% in Superintendent Gorman's first year.
Scores rose 13% for students performing at grade level, and he recognizes it's only a start, there is still a long way to go. And there is. Still, a good Return On Investment for one year.

5. It's an investment in the city of Charlotte's future.
The most successful government program ever? The GI Bill that made college education affordable to the Greatest Generation-- Investments in Education are PROVEN, they WORK, we just need to remember our own history. Like to make the state of North Carolina great? Provide great educations for the children- that simple.

6. Pay me now or pay, me later said the old television commercial.
I said this before but it bears repeating: 1/2 of all prison inmates are high school drop outs.

7. Doesn't your child deserve the best you and (we) your community can offer?
Isn't that what parenting is about? Can you imagine any parent feels that different about their kids? Then why is it so difficult to see that everyone in this county (and country) deserves the same? Because it is expensive? Because it is hard? While buildings aren't sufficient for a great education, they are a very necessary part of the education matrix. I don't think its to much to ask, roofs that don't leak, facilities that are safe, science labs in all high schools, music and arts funding and a football stadium. No, Americans can and have overcome harder more expensive things in the past. Every child deserves a quality education, taught by good teachers. That is not too much to demand.

8.It is who we are, a nation committed to all of its citizens. Ben Franklin and Thomas Jefferson knew that to run a democratic republic, the public must be educated, and public education was born. This is no time to turn our back on their wise council.

9.Our children are part of the future of our nation-- and if you believe that this country is great, you have to put your money where your mouth is... and that goes to the federal level as well- a month's spending in Iraq would pay for half the new schools needed across the whole country.

10. Some say the schools are run so poorly that it's throwing good money after bad. This is just wrong- go into the schools and see for yourself. Or, "My child's graduated, or goes to private school, why do should I pay?" Because this country has been dedicated to providing public education since its inception 230 years ago. No, these arguments are selfishness disguised by thin excuses, the real attitude? "I've got mine, who cares about everybody else?" These are not the values that have made this country great, and thankfully they are not close to a majority view here either, just a loud minority.

Only those who think this city's best days are behind her, don't want to invest in Charlotte's future. I believe Charlotte and North Carolina's best days are in the future. And by all means lets keep them accountable, keep them looking for ways to cut costs and be more efficient. Keep the pressure on, but these are capital investments and require the cheapest financing available- give them the funds and tools to do the job. As for me, I'll happily stand with Franklin and Jefferson in the commitment to public education- it is absolute necessity to a functioning democracy.

And as we teach our children the ideals of our founders, we find ourselves recommitting to those same principles ... something else of value.

Let's defeat this BIG Time, 2 or 3 to 1.

VOTE FOR CHARLOTTE'S FUTURE. Vote For The School Bond November 6. Vote FOR the land acquisition. Vote AGAINST transit repeal.

Video of The US National WhiteWater Center

Here's a you tube clip I found... enjoy




I've been several times, always had a good time, even swimming once or twice. Hear someone knock it? Ask if they've been there. The knuckle draggers haven't made it out somehow...

Another Bad MLS Stat- % Sale to %List

Recently I wrote about how our DOM is basically a bogus stat, one that is dangerously missing key information. Another stat we Realtors like to bandy about is the % Sales To %List Price Ratio... you know the one, here in Charlotte it is typically cited as 97-98.5%.

Often Sellers ask what your rate is, trying to compare you to this mythical average, (I'll prove the mythical part in a minute) when they are comparing Agents seeking Listings.

In fact our local MLS board proudly reported in September that the % Sale to List price was essentially unchanged from a year ago, therefore our market was perfectly healthy.

I feel better already. All I can say is we have a very wise group of sellers and even smarter Realtors who must price every property almost perfectly, don't you think? I can see the skeptical look on your face ...

Of course the title gives this away, but yes, the %Sale to % List stat is bogus too, for almost exactly the same reason as the DOM stat doesn't work for consumers-- it only reflects the last List price, not the first, exactly as the DOM stat only is taken from the last Listing date, not the first.

To make this easy lets say I list your home for $1,000,000. According to the MLS you can expect to get say 97% or $970,000 which you think is great because the house is only worth 500K. So lets agree the %Sale to % List is not a very accurate predictor of sales price, OK?

But then after a month, after we've received no showings and several anonymous notes asking if we always drink or smoke something before Listing, we lower the price to $500,000- the real market value and showings begin and your home is wonderful and we soon get a sale for full price, $500,000, which is also fair market value.

I just sold your home for 100% of List... 500,ooo Sales Price is 1005 of List price, the last List price anyway. Are you beginning to see the problem here? It is related to DOM this way, the MLS only reports your last List price, making there be no penalty for people starting high... other states, the original number always appears on the MLS sheet, so buyers, and their Agents know at a glance the Original price, and current price.

Yes, my agent readers will tell me we can look it up and provide that information to our Buyer client, and that is true. Just like looking up the actual DOM, I'll get a history of the Listing price at the same location-- but again why do we post our information this way?

Once again they report the price this way to protect the Seller and the Listing Agent-- by not putting the original Listing Price in, there is no penalty for pricing a Listing ridiculously high, to the seller or Agent.

What's going on? They are still hoping for the stupid buyer... you know the mythical "just fell off the turnip truck Beverly Hillbilly type" Well guys in the age of the Internet and Buyers Agency those days are gone.

I insist all of my Buyer Agents report the actual Days on Market, and the Original Price, on every property a client has significant interest in... it is just made harder by a delibarately opaque MLS.

And you've just got to love the liability switch-- by reporting DOM only on the Agent copy, the MLS never tells a client DOM, or original List price, only the Buyer Agent does, giving the MLS their "Get Out Of Jail Free" card if the buyer Agent neglects to provide this information- it dumps liability on the Agent if its ever a problem. Gotta love that!

Not.

September Market Report, Prices Rising!

The average cost per square foot (cpsf) rose 6% in September as compared with the average cpsf in August 2006 on single Family homes in the greater Charlotte Area*, and unit sales were off again. Here are the numbers:
Average Cost /SF Rose from 110.46 to 117.14, 6.05% increase.
Units Sold Fell from 2537 (2006) to 2068, 18.49% decrease
Expired Listings Rose from 439 to 692, a 57% increase, but numerically, less than half the lost sales.

*The counties and area covered are Mecklenburg,Union,Iredell,Cabarrus,Gaston, Lincoln, Stanley, Lake Wylie and Lake Norman (whole)

I also looked at the 3 month period 7/1/2007 to 9/30/2007 versus the same period in 2006-- the three month numbers should give us a better trend line, and indeed the lost number of sales is lower, as is the appreciation.

3 Months Ending September 30
The Average Cost/sf rose from 114.25 to 119.63, an increase of 4.71%
The Units Sold fell from a high of 9013 (2006) to 7848, and 12.93% decrease
Expired Listings rose 49%, again the increased number of expireds is about 50% of the lost sales.

Conclusions? Overall, the market is obviously slower, but as price gains remain steady, I'll have to repeat that the value fundamentals in our market are still steady, rock steady. A 13% decrease in sales is significant, but we know that 7-10% of the buyers are out due to the extinction of sub prime lending, and we know that many folks can't sell their home in the northeast, in the west or Florida. So the result is that with 13% fewer buyers, our prices rose. Excellent!

Now most of you know I don't care for our bogus Days on Market stat, but the Absorption rate is another matter, and based on 4170 Active listings, we have less than 9 weeks of inventory based on September sales. Very Good!

I expect to hear the New Home sales are worse. They were quite late in reacting to the national slowdown that began 2 years ago, so their inventories are high. Once again, if you are buying new, only buy an inventory- at a discount!

I'll be doing area reports in the next several days.

Realty Place- Deception, Collusion, And Fraud?

For some time I've waited for the "other shoe" to drop-- the real estate Broker/Agent role in the high number of foreclosures and "upside down" neighborhoods built by Beazer and financed with sub prime lending...

I can't speak for the industry, but I can speak for myself, reading "Homebuyers in the Dark" and "Promises Upfront, Deals on the Side" by Observer reporters Applebaum and St. Onge, in my opinion three words descibes the Realty Place concept and their agents: Deception, Collusion, Fraud...A possible fourth, Conspiracy would be harder to prove, but I think there needs to be an investigation, state SBI, are you listening?

Key facts uncovered by their excellent reporting:

From 2002-2005, Beazer Homes paid Realty Place 2.2M in commissions including 700K in bonuses, on 420 transactions averaging 3.9% of sales price, a full 1.2% higher than the national average. Of 50 purchasers interviewd, not one said they were told of the bonus by builder or agent.

From the Observer statisticians, "Most of the increase in foreclosures in Mecklenburg County are accounted for by the increase of "starter home" foreclosures." And, of the "Beazer Homes sold by Realty Place in 2002, 1/3 are in foreclosure". Wow, the national average for foreclosures is 3%.

Lets look at where the foreclosures are on the Observer map here. Anyone want to bet that there were a high number of minority purchasers as well? So it seems clear that the "Heinemann Innovation" was to bring sales techniques formerly confined to low class sales companies (sell the payment to undereducated people has been the practice of some home improvement companies, timeshare guys and some of the early Land (swampland) sellers)and prey on a new class of unsuspecting, unfortunately all too gullible first time home buyers. And hide behind statements like, "We disclosed everything," and "I can't be sure we trained to tell every buyer there was a bonus," the owners have produced a wall of what they think is plausible deniability.

As they say in Texas, "That dog won't hunt."

Key Questions: Realty Place was known for its horrible "split"- the percentage paid to the Agent doing the work. Of that 2.2M paid to Realty Place, how much went to brokers/owners Heineman, Jordan and Boschele?

Also- why would Beazer pay 3.9%, over 1.2% higher than the national average to Realty Place? Why would they do that-what were they getting in return? And who were the biggest beneficiaries of that extra 1.2% and what did they give Beazer? And did you note the customer who was taken only to Eastwood and Beazer, and once Eastwood was out, they only looked at Beazer? When there are at least 10 other builders building in this price range, only Beazer? Is it possible the other builders only paid the industry standard 2.5%?

The answers to these and other interesting questions lie in the records of Realty Place where every HUD must be kept for a minimum of 7 years. The HUD is a highly detailed record of the transactions, the precise records an investigation would collect. Every lending transaction would appear here as well- anyone want to bet that the loan costs are at least 1.2% higher than the national average? Legal fees, title fees and insurance too? It's the HUD-the one place that will diagram the tangled web of relationships that will prove collusion, quite probably deception, and maybe fraud and conspiracy too.

So I think if an investigator reviewing the HUD Statements, and looking at the books to see precisely the income streams and how the owners of Realty Place made their living-
this thing will unravel and we'll see some perp walks.

Let's hope for that investigation and see where it takes us.

Buyer Agent Bonuses and Other Mistakes

Yes I've accepted them in the past. No, I can't accept them in the future. Why? Well you have to ask, who am I representing? I'm representing Buyers. If a Seller is paying me a bonus, what is he paying a bonus for? In other words, what's his motivation? And if its OK to accept a small bonus, when is that bonus too big? I wrote this post about a $50,000 Buyer Agent bonus last month that just put me over the edge. Then the article in today's Observer. Thought they could be abused, and they were.

Now let me point out right away I have never sold a home because of a bonus. I never wanted to hear a customer say you sold me this home because of the bonus. In almost every case I disclosed the bonus. But not every case. And it did adjust the playing field once-- a Centex home with a 10K bonus worked its way onto the View list. I remember selecting it for the View list along with about 10 others, out of 30 or so...

The buyers bought this house, not at my suggestion, but inspite of a lot of things. The bonus was nice, I could justify it because Centex dropped the price to my buyer by 35K or so-- but still, how much do my customers have to pay for my services?
And they did pay for the enire commision, within the sales price of the home, didn't they? Anyone doubt I could have negotiated a 10k price reduction giving up the bonus?

So- if there is a Buyer Agent Bonus what will we do? Pay it to our buyers, either in reduced sales price or rebate. There can be no other answer- because even a small bonus may distort the playing field.

We either represent the Buyer's interests alone, or we represent someone else. I choose the Buyer.

You Aren't From Around Here Are Yuh?

The Charlotte Observer did one of their "state of the city" articles today asking the question of the hour: "Is Charlotte Still a Southern City?" Anyone who has worked with me or reads my stuff knows that for a long time I've told people that Charlotte is a large modern city in the South, but not a southern city. Now thanks to the prodigious database editor of the Observer, Ted Mellnik, we have these numbers to prove my point, thanks Ted.
1. In Mecklenburg County, 57% of the folks living here were not born here, and 62% of those were born outside the South.
2. 88,000 moved to the area, summer '05 to summer 2006. After a few exports, we realized a net gain of 74,000.
3. Where do they come from? In Mecklenburg County, they come from:
Northeast 25%
Midwest 12%
West 6%
South 33% (includes Florida- is this really the South? South Miami maybe!)
Outside US 24%

4. The definitive answer: there are more pizza shops than barbeque shops listed in the Yellow Pages. And yes, you can get pie by the slice here.

Now be aware there is a 20 mile rule-- 20 miles out in any direction and you could be back in the Old South. But here in Charlotte things are different.

That doesn't sit well with some of the natives and at times they fight a rear-guard action, trying to put the genie back in the growth bottle so they can return to the good old days of the 70's and 80's when they ran things.

Ah well, here's to the future! Charlotte's best days are ahead of her! Never been here? Well have a look a the slide show below...


I'll see you in Charlotte! See the full Observer article here.